Market Quick Take - Wall Street nears a record as Asia's chip jitters linger - 4 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Iran talks resume as strong US manufacturing data and Friday's payrolls frame a cautious week.
• Equities: US and European equities rallied on cheaper oil and AI strength, while Asian markets turned mixed as Korean chip volatility persisted.
• Volatility: Iran de-escalation and AI earnings drove a Monday rally, though Asian chip volatility keeps VIX subdued into payrolls.
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities extended Monday's rally as sentiment improved, while Hashdex became the first US spot bitcoin ETF to close.
• Commodities: Oil bounced back from Monday's steep drop. Gold rangebound while copper surged to multi-week high.
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields rebound slightly from Monday's drop as risk appetite returned. New high in short JGB yields.
• Currencies:The yen gave back some intervention-driven gains while the dollar held broadly steady overnight.

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Macro

• Iran said talks to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, after Trump called off a planned strike and called his latest offer "Tehran's last chance," adding he expects a full reopening of the Strait.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3, topping forecasts for the strongest expansion since May 2022, with faster output, solid new orders and a return to job growth.
• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 53.9 in July, matching June for a 12th straight month of expansion, though momentum softened with slower new orders and weaker exports.
• US construction spending fell 0.1% in June to an annualised $2.17 trillion, missing expectations as residential activity declined; first-half spending was down 3.5% year-on-year.
• Germany's retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month in June, the sharpest drop since May 2025, while Swiss CPI cooled to 0.4% year-on-year in July, the weakest since March.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1230 – US Jun. Trade Balance
• 1230 – Canada Jun. International Merchandise Trade
• 1400 – US Jun Factory Orders
• 1400 – US Jun. JOLTS Job Openings
• 2245 – New Zealand Q2 Employment and Wage data

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

• Monday (yesterday): Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott International
• Tuesday: Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC Holdings, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer, BP,
• Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
• Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
• Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: The S&P 500 closed Monday up 1.5% at 7,600.50, within 0.1% of its record high, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.8% as easing Middle East tensions and AI-earnings strength drove the rally. Microsoft led with a 4.9% gain, Meta surged 6%, Alphabet +4.9% and Amazon +4.6% after crossing a $3 trillion market cap. Apple was the lone laggard, off 0.5%. After hours, Palantir jumped almost 15% on raised guidance and Snap beat Q2 revenue estimates, guiding Q3 in line. Tuesday's session is more cautious: Nasdaq 100 futures were up around 0.4% pre-market, but fresh South Korean chip volatility is capping follow-through as SK Hynix and Samsung remain volatile after Monday's chip rout.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 added 0.5% to 652.09, just shy of its record, as falling oil prices and AI-earnings momentum lifted sentiment. The DAX hit a fresh intraday record at 26,001, up 1.5%, and the CAC 40 touched its first intraday record since February, SAP led gains, up 4.4%. UK homebuilders jumped as much as 6.5% as markets pared Bank of England rate-hike bets on lower oil, while AstraZeneca fell 9.0% after reports of possible merger talks with Bristol Myers Squibb raised concerns about execution and the future of a major UK listing.
• Asia: Asian equities diverged from Wall Street's rally Tuesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge down 0.7% as persistent South Korean chip volatility revived AI-valuation worries, a regional semiconductor gauge fell 1%. Australia's ASX 200 rose 1.3% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.8% Monday.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.86 | VIX FUTURES: 17.81 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (139.96) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING (MIXED SIGNALS) | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Monday's US-Iran de-escalation and blowout AI earnings drove the S&P 500 to a 1.5% close within a whisker of a record, though a fresh South Korean chip selloff is capping follow-through Tuesday. VIX eased to 15.86 and VIX1D collapsed 23% to 9.43, pricing very little near-term risk.
• The term structure stayed in contango out to VIX1Y at 22.90, SKEW held elevated at 139.96 and MOVE eased to 80.48. SPXW options imply a 30-point (0.39%) move for today's expiry and a 79-point (1.04%) range into Friday 7 August, with that day's payrolls the primary catalyst.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,751 +0.47% | ETHEREUM ~1,864 +0.27% | IBIT 36.16 +1.46% | ETHA 14.11 +0.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

• Digital assets extended Monday's risk rally as US-Iran de-escalation lifted sentiment across markets, with spot holding a tight overnight range. IBIT and ETHA advanced alongside US equities, while miners led gains broadly, paced by an 8.2% move in Cifr and 8.0% in Iren.
• Hashdex became the first US spot bitcoin ETF issuer to close a fund, confirming it will liquidate the $14.7 million DEFI product on 17 August after it failed to attract assets against larger rivals.

Commodities

• In crude oil, October Brent traded just above USD 85 per barrel early Tuesday, bouncing from Monday’s steep sell-off to as low a USD 81.55/bbl as US President Trump called his latest offer on terms to Iran the country’s "last chance,". September WTI (front-month) was less volatile, bouncing slightly to USD 81.26 / bbl.
• Gold remains mired in the middle of a tight 3,960-4,170 range that has been established over the last several weeks, with traders uninspired by the backdrop.
• Silver is taking its lead more from gold than from copper, with the late rising sharply early Tuesday to USD 6.60/lb, the highest level since the June and now less than two percent below the highest level for the front contract month just below USD 6.70/lb.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields rebounded slightly after Monday’s drop, with the 2-year and 10-year treasury benchmarks trading about two basis points higher from Monday’s close early Tuesday at 4.26% and 4.69% respectively. Japan’s government bond yields hit new highs for the cycle eat the front end as the 2-year JGB benchmark hit 1.57%
• The Treasury lifted Q3 net borrowing guidance to $739 billion, up $68 billion; JPMorgan raised its year-end 10-year and 30-year yield targets on Fed-credibility doubts following Chair Warsh's limited guidance.

Currencies

• USDJPY rebounded about 0.25% from Monday’s close to around 157.60 in early Tuesday trade, as the JPY gave back some of Monday's intervention-driven gains; Japan's Finance Ministry is estimated to have spent roughly $34 billion on Friday alone.
• EURUSD was steady just above 1.1500 early Tuesday while AUDUSD managed to rebound above 0.7000 again, trading 0.7020 after Monday’s 0.6984 low.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis