Market Quick Take – 20 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US indices up while Europe was broadly flat, Asia stayed cautious with Hong Kong weaker on China and policy worries
• Volatility: Volatility stays elevated but controlled, with today’s macro data in focus
• Digital assets: BTC rebounds around 92k despite continued IBIT/ETHA outflows, miner accumulation, and alt-coins finding support
• Fixed income: Japanese government bond yields rip higher on anticipated large fiscal package emerges
• Currencies: JPY sent spinning into the abyss on concerns linked to fiscal dynamics. USD broadly firm
• Commodities: Gold softens on Fed caution; crude steadies as traders assess looming US sanctions
• Macro events: Delayed US Sep. Jobs Report, US Nov. Philly Fed survey, Japan Oct. National CPI

Macro headlines

• Nvidia shares jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after reporting strong earnings, revenue, and an upbeat fourth-quarter forecast. CEO Jensen Huang said demand for its Blackwell chips is “off the charts.”
• Federal Reserve officials were split on lowering the federal funds rate in October. Most favored further cuts for December, though some were skeptical about another 25bps cut. The Fed decreased the rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% in October 2025.
• Japan is looking to compile an economic package worth more than 20 trillion yen (USD 129 billion, which is around 3% of GDP and the largest since the pandemic) on Friday to ease the pain of rising living costs, even as the dire weakness in its currency raises inflation risks. This according to a draft of the plan seen by Reuters.
• The BLS will delay the November jobs report until after the Fed’s December meeting, clouding the policy outlook and raising odds of a hold. The October report is cancelled.
• Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Vincent stated that Canada's weak productivity is a systemic issue needing a coordinated approach, as it hampers addressing frequent economic shocks. He emphasized the importance of the link between rising labor costs and productivity in inflation assessments, according to Reuters.
• UK inflation fell to 3.6% in October 2025, its lowest in four months, but slightly higher than 3.5% expectations. Housing and utilities saw slower price increases due to energy cap changes. Transport inflation stayed at 3.8%, but food and recreation rose. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, and core inflation hit a six-month low of 3.4% as expected, while Services rose 4.5% vs. 4.6% expected.
• In August 2025, US exports rose $0.2 billion to $280.8 billion amid trade policy uncertainty. Service exports grew $0.8 billion, while goods exports fell $0.5 billion due to declines in consumer goods, industrial supplies, and automotive exports. A $2.4 billion increase in capital goods, especially computers, provided some offset.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (delayed?)
1330 – US Sep. Nonfarm Payrolls Change
1330 – US Sep. Unemployment Rate
1330 – US Sep. Average Hourly Earnings
1330 – US Nov. Philly Fed Survey
2330 – Japan Oct. National CPI

Earnings events

• Today: Walmart, Intuit

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US equities finally broke a four-day losing streak on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 up 0.6% and the Dow gaining 0.1% as investors digested mixed Fed minutes and positioned around Nvidia’s results. Nvidia rose 2.9% into the close and then jumped further in after-hours trading after posting strong earnings and an upbeat fourth-quarter outlook, with CEO Jensen Huang calling demand for Blackwell chips “off the charts.” Broadcom climbed 4.1%, while AMD and Micron slipped 2.9% and 1.1% respectively, showing that investors still discriminate inside the AI complex. Retail was mixed: Target fell 2.8% on a cautious tone, whereas Lowe’s gained 4.0% and TJX added 0.2% as demand for value and home improvement held up, leaving the market’s next move heavily tied to how Nvidia’s guidance shapes the broader AI trade.
• Europe: In Europe, equities edged higher but the tone stayed cautious as investors weighed stretched tech multiples against the prospect of slower policy easing. The Stoxx 50 gained 0.1%, the Stoxx 600 was essentially flat around 561.7, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.5% on rate and currency worries. ASML rose 2.4%, benefiting from renewed interest in core AI infrastructure, whereas Infineon eased 0.6%, reflecting more selective appetite for cyclicals in semiconductors. Nokia slumped 7% after announcing a spin-off of its AI-focused network unit following a 1 billion dollar investment from Nvidia, with the ambitious new profit targets prompting some investor doubts. Offsetting this, defensives outperformed: Roche rose 1.2% and Novo Nordisk gained 1.9%, as investors continued to lean on healthcare for earnings resilience while they wait to see whether AI enthusiasm can coexist with Europe’s higher-for-longer rate backdrop.
• Asia: Across Asia the mood stayed subdued, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index falling 0.4% to around 25,831 for a fourth straight decline as traders braced for Nvidia’s earnings, the Fed minutes and key US jobs data. Tech and property led the weakness: Xiaomi dropped 4.7% as worries about rising chip input costs clouded the outlook for its smartphone and EV ambitions, Pop Mart lost 2.4% and SMIC fell 1.2%, reflecting ongoing caution on China’s growth and regulatory backdrop. Political noise did not help, with speculation that further US fiscal stimulus tied to President Trump’s sliding approval ratings could re-ignite inflation concerns, while reports of tighter oversight of distressed loans by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority added pressure on financials. Japan and the mainland were more mixed, but with Hong Kong setting the tone, Asia now looks highly sensitive to any post-Nvidia swing in global risk appetite toward AI and China.

Volatility

• Equity volatility remains elevated but orderly as markets digest Nvidia’s results and shift their attention back to macro fundamentals. The VIX closed at 23.66, with short-term measures showing a similar picture: VIX1D at 26.9 (+29%) and VIX9D at 23.1 (-8%). This mix of rising very-short-term vols and softer 1-week vols suggests investors are cautious heading into today’s US data releases, but less fearful about week-ahead risks.
• Today’s macro calendar is packed with potential volatility catalysts: US jobless claims, September payroll revisions, wage data, and existing home sales. With the government shutdown having delayed several datasets, investors are bracing for some catch-up effects. Meanwhile, European indices continue to trade nervously around growth concerns, and Goldman’s reminder of the changing dollar–volatility relationship adds another dimension to cross-asset sentiment.
• Expected SPX move: Based on options pricing, the market is pricing a ±85-point (±1.3%) expected move into Friday’s expiry.
• Skew indicator: SPX weekly options show a mild upside call skew. Near-the-money calls for the 21 Nov expiry are priced slightly richer than puts, indicating some appetite for upside participation should Nvidia-related optimism carry into broader markets.

Digital assets

• Crypto markets are stabilising after a volatile week, supported in part by Nvidia’s earnings lift to risk assets. Bitcoin trades around USD 92,000, up from yesterday’s dip under USD 90k, while ethereum hovers near USD 3,000 after a bruising two-week decline. Sentiment remains fragile, but the heavy forced-selling pressure appears to be fading.
• ETF flows remain an important driver: IBIT fell 3.7% yesterday and continues to see notable outflows following Tuesday’s USD 523m redemption wave. ETHA is down 6–7%, reflecting broader weakness in ether-linked products. These flows remain a key indicator of institutional risk appetite. On-chain data shows BTC miners shifting from net selling to net accumulation over the past seven days—historically a constructive sign when markets search for a bottom.
• Major alt-coins are experiencing a similar pattern: deep retracements followed by cautious rebounds. Solana is trading around USD 143 (+4.6%), XRP is stable near USD 2.13, and broader crypto-equity proxies (COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT) remain pressured despite Bitcoin’s bounce. For long-term investors, diversification and sizing still matter more than intraday swings.

Fixed income

• US Treasuries sold off on indications of Fed that is more hesitant to ease in December and later on a boost to risk sentiment from Nvidia earnings. The benchmark 2-year rose a few basis points to the 3.60% area, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose three basis points back toward 4.14%, still below the key 4.15-4.20% area.
• The spread between US high yield corporate debt yields and US treasury yields tightened yesterday, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread we track tightening four basis points to 300 basis points, after the prior day saw the indicator touching the highest level since June.
• Japan’s yields jumped on stories circulating of the size of the incoming fiscal package to be announced tomorrow by the new government under PM Takaichi (see above) and on Bank of Japan member saying that the bank needs to “proceed with interest rate normalization” due to “significantly low levels” of real rates. Still, the odds of a December 19 BoJ hike remain low, with only five basis points of tightening priced in and only 20 basis points priced through the January 23 meeting. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield jumped 2.5 basis points to 0.956% as of this writing after a high of 0.969% earlier in the session. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose to new post-GFC highs once again overnight, to as high as 1.845%, some seven basis points above the prior close, before easing back to 1.81% as of this writing in early European hours.

Commodities

• Oil saw another lively but ultimately range-bound session on Wednesday. Headlines around a potential US-brokered peace initiative between Russia and Ukraine briefly pushed prices lower, only for the market to rebound as traders reassessed the impact of US sanctions on Russia’s energy majors, which take effect on Friday. A mixed US inventory report added to the noise: crude stocks fell, but product inventories registered their first increase in a month.
• Gold extended its recovery, briefly trading above USD 4,132 before giving back gains as the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened following the latest FOMC minutes, which signalled limited appetite for a December rate cut. Despite the pullback, bullion remains in consolidation mode after rising more than 50% this year, supported by a broad mix of structural and macro drivers ahead of 2026.

Currencies

• The JPY is tumbling on concerns that Japan’s fiscal dynamics are unsustainable as Japanese yield spiraled higher once again at the longer end of the yield curve. USDJPY ripped higher to the 157.50 area, with EURJPY likewise sharply higher to new records since the introduction of the Euro, hitting 181.44 overnight.
• The US dollar is broadly firm, especially versus the swooning JPY as noted above, but also against the Euro, where EURUSD dipped sharply below 1.1550 yesterday and fell further to as low as the 1.1510 area overnight, while GBPUSD fell as low a s1.3038, not far from range lows and the critical 1.3000 level.

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