Market Quick Take – 17 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Wall Street ended mixed, Europe retreated for a second day with banks and tech under pressure, Asia weakened
• Volatility: elevated gauge / data week ahead / ±1.9% expected move / skew to downside
• Digital Assets: bitcoin under $95 k / altcoin breadth weakness / IBIT & ETHA pressured / sentiment reset
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields rose Friday, 10-year Japanese yields hit new 17-year high. UK yields surge on fiscal concerns.
• Currencies: US dollar pulls back higher from lows of late last week. JPY remains weak.
• Commodities: Crude oil drops as Russian flows resume, Grains fall in USDA data aftermath.
• Macro events: Fed speakers & US Empire Manufacturing

Macro headlines

• After weeks of blackout, investors will finally get long-delayed readings on the strength of the US economy as government agencies resume publishing key indicators, including employment data. These releases should offer clearer guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, even as enthusiasm for AI-linked equities continues to support broader market sentiment.
• Alongside the data, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday will draw intense scrutiny. While another beat is widely expected, investors are increasingly uneasy about sky-high AI valuations. The company will also face questions about recent stake reductions from major holders, adding to concerns that “circular” capital flows within the AI ecosystem may be inflating a bubble.
• Japan's GDP shrank 0.4% in Q3 2025, and 1.8% on an annualised basis,reversing a 0.6% increase in Q2 but slightly better than the expected 0.6% decline. This first drop since Q1 2024 was due to weak private residential investment and exports exerting a drag on overall output
• According to Nikkei, the Japanese government is reportedly contemplating a stimulus package totaling approximately JPY 17 trillion, with a supplementary budget expected to be around JPY 14 trillion.
• The Swiss government finalized a 15% tariff deal with the Trump administration, ending a dispute since August over increased tariffs on Swiss exports.
• Trump stated no further tariff rollbacks are needed. Top US officials held talks with Chinese counterparts on Friday, and he is discussing soybeans with China, reports Reuters.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
1330 – US Nov. Empire Manufacturing
Fed speakers: Williams (1400), Kashkari (1800)

Earnings this week

• Today:
• Thu: Walmart, Intuit

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks finished mixed on Friday as investors reassessed the odds of a December rate cut. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, the Nasdaq gained 0.1%, and the Dow fell 0.7%, with the end of the government shutdown removing one uncertainty but leaving key data releases delayed. AI bellwethers staged a modest rebound from Thursday’s rout, with Nvidia up 1.8%, Microsoft 1.4%, Oracle 2.4% and Palantir 1.1% as dip buyers positioned ahead of Nvidia’s results next week. Defensives lagged, with UnitedHealth down 3.2% and Home Depot 1.5%, and market breadth stayed uneven as stretched AI valuations and fading easing hopes kept smaller and weaker names under pressure.
• Europe: European equities fell for a second straight session, giving back part of the week’s record highs. The STOXX 50 lost 0.9% and the STOXX 600 1%, while the FTSE 100 dropped 1.1% and Germany’s DAX 0.7%, as higher bond yields and Fed pushback on rate-cut expectations weighed on risk appetite Eurozone and UK banks led the decline, with UniCredit down 4.5%, Intesa Sanpaolo 3.1%, Santander 2.7% and BBVA 2.6% as investors rotated away from rate-sensitive financials. Tech mirrored the recent US wobble, with SAP off 3.2%, Prosus 2.3%, Infineon 1.6% and Nokia 2.5%, while pockets of strength came from Richemont, up 5.9% on robust US and China sales, and Allianz, up 1.2% after record nine-month results.
• Asia: Asian markets tracked the global AI and rates jitters, with most major indices closing lower on Friday. The Nikkei 225 fell about 1.8%, the CSI 300 dropped 1.6%, and the Hang Seng slid 1.9% to 26,572, its steepest one-day fall since mid-October, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index lost nearly 1.8%. Hong Kong weakness followed Wall Street’s tech sell-off and was compounded by October data showing Chinese factory output and retail sales at 14-month lows and fixed-asset investment down 1.7% year-on-year. Tech and consumer names led declines, with SMIC down 2.7%, XPeng 6.9% and Kuaishou 2.9%, underscoring how quickly sentiment can swing in high-beta China and AI proxies even after brief rallies.

Volatility

• Implied equity volatility remains elevated but not in panic-mode territory: the S&P 500’s fear gauge, the VIX, closed near 19.8, up from mid-17s earlier this month. We enter a turning week for markets: domestic data (PMIs, earnings) and the Federal Reserve minutes are due, and the risk focus has shifted from “when will the Fed cut” to “will it stay on hold”. This uncertainty is keeping volatility in play.
• Options pricing for the SPX suggests a roughly ±1.9% move this week (≈±130 points from ~6,730) — meaning markets are bracing for meaningful swings rather than calm.
• Skew is still tilted: downside puts in the SPX options chain are richer relative to calls, pointing to stronger hedging demand than speculative upside bets. In short: the market isn’t “calm”, but it isn’t in full panic either — it’s in wait-and-see mode, and that creates opportunity and risk.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are under clear pressure. Bitcoin slipped below ~$95,000, marking a six-month low, as rate-cut expectations from the Fed fade and risk appetite backs away. Ethereum is trading around ~$3,100 and major altcoins such as Solana (~$140) and XRP (~$2.2) are taking larger hits — this suggests breadth of stress across the space.
• The two spot‐ETF-linked names bear watching: IBIT is at ~$53.5, down ~3.8% in recent moves, and ETHA sits just below ~$24, also under pressure. These reflect structural flows as much as speculative demand.
• For investors, the key takeaway: this isn’t a pure “buy the dip” setup yet; the market is resetting. A focus on sizing, discipline and longer‐term view wins over chasing short‐term rallies in this climate.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries sold off Friday, with yields pulling to the higher side of the recent range. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose only about a single basis point to 3.60%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose a bit more, touching close to a one-month high at 4.15% before easing slightly lower.
• UK Gilts sold off steeply on Friday on fiscal concerns as an FT story suggested Chancellor Reeves and PM Starmer may ditch plans to implement new income taxes in the coming budget. The 2-year Gilt benchmark rose some 8 basis points to 3.84%, while the 10-year Gilt benchmark surged 14 basis points to 4.57%.
• Japan’s 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields continue to draw attention as today’s session saw the benchmark yield rising two basis points to a new post-2008 high overnight, just above 1.73%.

Commodities

• Oil prices dropped following Friday’s jump after loadings resumed at the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, following a Ukrainian strike that caused damage and halted activities last week. Brent and WTI remain firmly rangebound with Russian supply disruptions partly offsetting increased OPEC+ supply.
• Gold trades lower for a third day around USD 4,060, yet well above support at USD 4,024 with traders focusing on the gyrations in the US stock market, a deluge of US economic data and recently a diminishing hope for a US Federal Reserve rate cut next month after Fed officials showed little conviction. Meanwhile, silver’s end of week correction following an earlier surge saw it find fresh support near USD 50.
• Chicago grain futures fell on Friday after a US government crop report pointed to solid corn and soybean yields, resulting in higher-than-expected ending stocks. Updated export sales data added to the pressure, showing only modest Chinese purchases of US soybeans—well below the volumes the White House has suggested China would secure before year-end.

Currencies

• The US dollar fought back a bit from the weakness late last week, as EURUSD retreated to 1.1620 on the close Friday after a 1.1654 high and then to the 1.1600 area overnight. USDJPY rose slightly overnight from Friday’s close to 154.70 after a 153.62 low amidst choppiness in risky assets on Friday.
• Sterling stabilized Friday after a brief sell-off on a story that Chancellor Reeves and PM Starmer are set to ditch plans to hike income taxes in the coming fall budget announcement (November 26), as their change of plans was supposedly prompted by the Office of Budget Responsibility producing a more optimistic forecast that would allow for less fiscal austerity.

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