Asia Market Quick Take – December 23, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Miran unsure on rate cut; Fed chair position confirmation pending January
• Equities: Tech and energy stocks lift US markets; Nvidia, Oracle, Micron gain
• FX: AUD, NZD, GBP rise against Dollar; CAD lags despite metal surge
• Commodities: Gold, silver reached new highs; Oil rises amid Venezuela blockade
• Fixed income: USD 69 billion 2-year notes auctioned, yield at 3.499%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Fed’s Miran cites shutdown-driven inflation anomalies as a reason for a dovish stance, favoring lower policy rates to align with a reduced neutral rate. He warns that failing to cut could raise recession risks. Miran is undecided on a 50bps cut, awaiting more data, while his Fed role remains uncertain pending confirmation in January. CNBC reports Trump may name a new Fed chair by early January.
•  ECB's Schnabel indicated no immediate rate hikes, citing more inflationary pressures than disinflationary ones, though future increases might be needed. Vujcic stated the next Deposit Rate move could be in either direction. Kazimir emphasized the ECB's preparedness to intervene when necessary and expressed concerns about the Eurozone's long-term growth prospects.
• Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Japan has a “free hand” to take bold action against currency speculation.

Equities: 

• US - The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Nasdaq gained 0.6%, and the Dow improved by 300 points, driven by strong performances in technology stocks. Nvidia shares rose by 1.5% following plans to ship H200 AI chips to China by mid-February, while Oracle and Micron Technology surged by 3.2% and 4%, respectively. Energy stocks Exxon Mobil and Chevron rose around 1.3% and 1.4% amid firm oil prices due to US-Venezuela tensions. Larry Ellison has personally guaranteed $40.4b in equity financing for his son’s Paramount Skydance’s offer to acquire Warner Bros at $30 per share.
• EU - European markets closed slightly lower, with the Eurozone's STOXX 50 down 0.2% to 5,750 and the STOXX 600 slipping 0.1% to 587. Tensions from stalled Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks added further pressure. Beverage giants AB InBev and Pernod Ricard each dropped over 2% after China imposed 45% tariffs on European dairy products. Stellantis fell 5.7% in response to the Italian competition authority concluding its investigation into transparency issues in range advertisements involving Stellantis and Italian arms of Tesla, BYD, and Volkswagen. Novo Nordisk surged 9.4% in the US post market after winning FDA approval for its Wegovy pill and plans a US launch next month.
• HK - Hang Seng climbed 0.4%, to close at 25,802 on Monday, marking its highest in over a week and extending gains for the fourth consecutive session. This uptick was fueled by a rise in U.S. futures, following a rebound in AI-related stocks that lifted Wall Street sentiment. The People's Bank of China's decision to maintain key lending rates at record lows for the seventh meeting in a row supported positive market sentiment as the economy remains on track with its growth targets. Notable gainers included Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (+5.9%), Zijin Mining Group (+5.3%), Pop Mart International Group (+4.6%), JD Health International (+3.3%), and Trip.com Group (+2.7%).

FX:

• USD weakened Monday in light trading as markets await GDP, PCE, and Consumer Confidence reports due Tuesday. Fed Governor Miran hinted at less support for a 50bps rate cut, pending forthcoming data, while rumors swirl about President Trump naming a new Fed chair by January. DXY reached a low of 98.196.
• G10 currencies gained against the Dollar, with AUD, NZD and GBP outperforming, while CAD lagged. Antipodeans were buoyed by risk-on sentiment and rising metal prices, with NZDUSD and AUDUSD hitting highs of 0.5800 and 0.6660, respectively.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama announced Japan's readiness to take bold action on the JPY, causing the currency to strengthen sharply. USDJPY quickly fell from 157.31 to 156.87 before adjusting back to around 157.16.
• ECB members Kazimir, Vujcic, and Schnabel spoke with little market reaction, indicating rate hikes are not expected soon, despite potential future increases. EURUSD traded around 1.1760.
• CAD neared 1.375 against USD, bolstered by Canada's stable economic conditions. A rebound in November retail sales and steady inflation, with CPI at 2.2%, supported the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain rates at 2.25%, enhancing confidence in the currency.

Commodities:

• Gold and silver reached new highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and anticipation of US rate cuts. Gold rose 2.1% to $4,429.99 an ounce, while silver climbed 2.7% to $68.96. The metals are experiencing their strongest annual performance since 1979, bolstered by investor activity and safe-haven appeal amid the US-Venezuela blockade and Ukraine-Russia conflicts.
• Platinum and palladium prices have rallied due to tightening market conditions and high demand. Platinum, up about 125% this year, has surpassed $2,000 for the first time since 2008. Palladium climbed 5.1% recently, hitting a near three-year high, driven by robust Chinese demand and metal storage increases in the US to counter tariff risks.
• Oil prices rose as the US tightened its blockade on Venezuela, boarding the Centuries tanker and chasing the Bella 1. WTI increased 2.4% to over $58 a barrel, and Brent rose 2.7% to $62.07. While geopolitical tensions provide short-term support, analysts expect price declines to persist due to oversupply and weak demand.

Fixed income:

• The US Treasury auctioned USD 69 billion in 2-year notes at a 3.499% yield, with demand trailing expectations. This resulted in a 0.3bps tail, the largest since April, and marked the fourth tail in 2025. Direct demand rose to 34.1%, while indirect demand dropped to 53.2%. Dealers took 12.7%, slightly above average. Despite weak demand, prices remained stable. Upcoming sales include USD 70 billion in 5-year notes on December 23rd and USD 44 billion in 7-year notes on December 24th.

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