Market Quick Take – 15 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: S&P at record while Russell cools; Europe higher; Asia mixed; UK at record
• Volatility: VIX near 15 with upward curve; options imply ~0.9% SPX daily move
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound on PPI beat
• Digital Assets: BTC and ETH slip; ETH spot ETFs draw inflows
• Currencies: USDJPY lower on Japan growth beat, steady week for the dollar overall
• Commodities: Agriculture sector show strength in a week of energy and precious metal weakness
• Macro events: US retail sales, consumer sentiment and Trump-Putin talks

Macro headlines

• Core and headline PPI rose 0.9% month-over-month compared to the anticipated 0.2%. Over three-quarters of this increase in producer prices was linked to the index for final demand services (+1.1%), with more than half attributable to margins for final demand trade services, which increased by 2%.
• Japan growth beat forecasts, boosting rate-hike case. GDP grew by 0.3% QoQ in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations of 0.1%, due to robust private consumption and strong business investment. Despite high costs, consumption rose by 0.2%, while business investment surged 1.3%.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin commended the US for its "energetic and sincere efforts" to halt the conflict in Ukraine. He also showed openness to initiating a new arms control treaty, suggesting such a pact could "establish long-term peace" between the US and Russia. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump characterized the forthcoming summit as an exploratory meeting, predicting "a 25% chance" it might "not succeed."
• China's economy slowed across the board in July suggesting an impact from Beijing's crackdown to curb overcapacity in businesses from steel to solar and EVs, extreme weather, and spillovers from Donald Trump's tariffs. Production at factories and mines rose at the slowest rate since November and expanded a worse-than-forecast 5.7% YoY, while retail sales grew 3.7% YoY, the least this year. Expansion in fixed-asset investment in the first seven months of the year decelerated to 1.6%, as a contraction in the real estate sector deepened.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US July Retail Sales
1315 – US July Industrial Production
1400 – US August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
1900 – Trump and Putin hold talks in Alaska

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

Next Week:

• Mon: Palo Alto Networks, BHP
• Tue: Home Depot, Medtronic
• Wed: TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Analog Devices, Estee Lauder, Target
• Thu: Walmart, Intuit, Ross Stores, Workday

Equities

• USA: Stocks were mixed after a hot PPI; the S&P 500 gained a record close. The Russell 2000 fell 1.2%, easing after a +3% surge earlier this week to six-month highs. Intel +7.4% on reports the U.S. may take a stake; Deere -6.8% after trimming guidance and flagging tariff costs; Cisco slipped on a cautious outlook; Applied Materials -14% after-hours on weak Q4 guide; UnitedHealth +10% late after Berkshire disclosed a 5m-share buy.
• Europe: Stocks rose; STOXX 600 +0.6% as defense and financials supported gains; DAX +0.8%. the highest since July 10, driven by favorable trade news and optimism for the Trump-Putin meeting. Leading gainers included Rheinmetall (+2.8%), Airbus (+2.3%), Allianz (+2.1%), and Vonovia (+2.1%).Thyssenkrupp -8.6% after cutting sales/investment outlook amid tariff uncertainty; RWE slipped after H1 profit fell on weak wind and trading.
• Asia: Mixed. Japan’s Nikkei gained after GDP beat (Q2 +0.3% q/q), while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.37% to 25,519. Credit stress lingered: Road King suspended offshore debt payments; KWG faced a winding-up petition. JD.com said Q2 profit roughly halved as promotion spend rose.
• UK: FTSE 100 notched a record close (+0.1%) led by insurers and defense. Admiral hit a record on strong H1 results; Aviva rose after a 22% operating-profit jump and a higher interim dividend. 

Volatility

Digital Assets

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields jumped following the stronger-than-expected July PPI print and steady weekly jobless claims, thereby fully reversing the Bessent-led drop the previous day. Fed rate cut expectations dropped, though demand remained for a SOFR options hedge on a half-point September cut. Despite of these developments, the 10-year yield near 4.27% is close to unchanged on the week, yet near key support around 4.2%.

Commodities

• The sector is heading for a small weekly loss as the Bloomberg Commodity TR Index trades near a ten-week low, with weakness in precious metals and energy only partly offset by broad gains in agriculture. Leading the gains are coffee (+5.4%), soybeans (+4.2%), and platinum (+2.0%), while natural gas (−4.7%) and gold (−2.8%) lag, joined by gasoil (diesel) and corn (both −2.0%).
• Gold is set for a weekly decline after a stronger-than-expected PPI print dented Fed rate-cut expectations—just a day after Bessent called for a 1.5% cut. Bullion remains rangebound within USD 200 as consolidation continues, with market attention now on the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska and its potential impact on geopolitical tensions.

Currencies

• USD/JPY traded lower overnight following a surprisingly strong rebound for the Japanese economy last quarter leaving traders to price in the prospect for a sooner than expected BOJ rate hike. The pair trades near 147 partly reversing yesterday’s sudden move higher to 148.
• Together with GBP, which is also heading for a weekly gain after 2Q25 growth beat estimates, these two currencies helped offset losses elsewhere, most notably the MXN, AUD and CAD, leaving the greenback near unchanged on the week. 

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.