Asia Market Quick Take – November 21, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – November 21, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: September NFP exceeded forecasts; unemployment ticked up to 4.4%
• Equities:Nvidia lost early gains, down 3%; Nasdaq 100 closes lower by 2.4%.
• FX: Dollar rises amid risk-off; USDJPY above 157.30
• Commodities: Oil extended declines as WTI fell for a third session
• Fixed income: Treasuries rose as December Fed-cut bets returned

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US nonfarm payrolls increased by 119K in September 2025, surpassing forecasts of 50K and rebounding from a 4K decline in August. Gains were led by health care (43K) and food services (37K), while losses occurred in transportation (-25K) and manufacturing (-6K). Unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%
• Japan's annual inflation increased to 3.0% in October 2025 from 2.9% in September, the highest since July. Core inflation was also 3.0%, the highest in three months. Monthly CPI rose by 0.4%, the highest since January.
• US continuing jobless claims rose to 1.974 million for the week ending November 8, 2025, the highest since 2021, indicating slowed hiring. Initial claims dropped by 8,000 to 220,000 for the week ending November 15. The increase suggests reduced hiring rather than more layoffs. Federal workers' claims jumped to 38,867, up 400% from pre-shutdown levels in October.

• Trump removed his 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products, including beef and coffee, initially imposed to penalize Brazil for prosecuting Jair Bolsonaro. This reversal, following a similar move last week, aims to lower US food costs. Effective November 13, it may require refunding duties collected previously. Brazil supplies one-third of US coffee and is a key beef supplier for burgers.

Equities: 

• US - U.S. stocks fell to one-month lows Thursday as rate concerns resurfaced and AI valuations faced scrutiny. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.4%, S&P 500 lost 1.5%, and Dow slid 350 points. Stronger-than-expected job growth in delayed BLS data reinforced expectations the Fed will hold rates steady in December. Nvidia fell 3.2% after early gains despite beating earnings and projecting sustained AI demand, while uncertainty over OpenAI’s $100B pact lingered. AMD, Micron, and Oracle plunged up to 10.9%. Walmart jumped 6% on strong results and raised guidance. Markets remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting.
• EU -European stocks surged Thursday, tracking global market rebounds after Nvidia’s strong earnings eased fears over tech valuations. The chipmaker beat estimates and dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, lifting sentiment. European firms tied to datacenter infrastructure, including Siemens, Schneider, and ASML, posted solid gains. BNP Paribas led banks after unveiling a new buyback plan and raising its CET1 ratio target to 13% by 2027. Conversely, Novartis slipped 2% despite boosting sales targets for key cancer drugs. The rally reflected renewed confidence in tech and financial sectors amid improving corporate outlooks.
• HK - Hang Seng closed nearly flat at 25,835 Thursday, erasing early gains after four sessions of losses. Financials offset weakness in tech, property, and consumer stocks as the PBoC held lending rates at record lows for a sixth meeting, signaling continued support. Sentiment was mixed amid reports of potential property measures, including mortgage subsidies and tax rebates, while geopolitical tensions deepened on news Beijing may halt Japanese seafood imports. China raised $8.6 billion via dollar and euro bonds in recent weeks. Techtronic and KE Holdings rose 4.6%, CITIC gained 1.8%, while Trip.com, Xiaomi, and Zijin Mining fell sharply.

Earnings this week:

• Friday: BJ’s Wholesale Club

FX:

• Dollar strengthened slightly as risk-off sentiment hit US equities and crypto markets. The Dollar Index climbed to 100.35 following robust September labor data, with payrolls surging to 119k and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%.
• G10 currencies saw declines, with AUD, CAD, and NZD hitting lows. The GBP managed minor gains, while the Yen recouped earlier losses. EUR moved in a tight range, driven by USD fluctuations.
• USDJPY peaked at 157.89 before retreating, easing concerns for Japanese officials. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary and Finance Minister expressed urgency over FX moves, while the BoJ signaled a readiness for intervention if needed.
• AUD lingered around $0.645 as the RBA reviews its policy effectiveness, with inflation volatility and a stronger US dollar contributing to its decline. Investors await PMI data for more insights.

Commodities:

• Oil extended declines as Zelenskiy agreed to work on a US- and Russia-drafted peace plan, with US sanctions on two Russian oil majors due Friday; WTI fell for a third session toward $58, while Brent closed near $63. Zelenskiy expects to discuss the plan with Trump, which reportedly includes Ukraine ceding territory and lifting sanctions.
• Gold held steady around $4,080 an ounce after a mixed US jobs report offered little fresh impetus for a Fed rate cut; the final labour data before the 9–10 Dec meeting showed September job growth beat expectations even as unemployment rose. It edged up 0.1% to $4,082.90, with silver and platinum flat and palladium slightly higher.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries rose in early US trading as markets priced back some December Fed-cut odds after the delayed September jobs report showed unemployment up to 4.4%. Gains extended as equities and oil fell, while January fed funds futures hit record volumes amid debate over easing at the 10 December meeting.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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