Market Quick Take – 19 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Broad selloffs as US and European indices slid ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, while Asia followed lower with internet names under pressure.
• Volatility: VIX steady near 25, macro data cluster keeps uncertainty high
• Digital Assets: BTC stabilising near USD 91k after sharp drop, IBIT/ETHA rebound modestly
• Fixed Income: Japan’s 10-year JGB hits new post-GFC high pre-fiscal announcement. US treasuries quiet.
• Currencies: JPY hits modest new lows before finding support. USD very rangebound.
• Commodities: Gold sellers find willing buyers; diesel rallies on Russia-linked disruptions
• Macro events: UK Oct. CPI, US Treasury to auction 20-year notes

Macro headlines

• The Labor Department's website revealed 232,000 new unemployment claims for the week ending October 18. Due to a technical issue, this data was released early. Remaining jobless claims data from the shutdown will be posted by Thursday's end.
• The US will approve advanced AI chip sales to Saudi firm Humain as part of a broader AI deal with Riyadh. This move allows favorable US review of AI chip exports to Saudi Arabia, requiring US permission since 2023. The agreement involves specific chip tiers, benefiting companies like Nvidia and AMD seeking to enter Middle Eastern markets.
• ADP Research reports companies shed 2,500 jobs weekly in the four weeks ending November 1. This data bridges gaps from delayed official employment reports due to the government shutdown. October's economic data release is still uncertain despite restored funding.
• The CFTC announced on its website that the CFTC will resume publication of the weekly Commitments of Traders reports in chronological order, with a schedule that shows a return to normal will not be achieved until 23 January. The report which shows the breakdown in open interest across most US futures markets, including commodities were disrupted from 1 October to 12 November.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
0700 – UK Oct. CPI
1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock report
1800 – US Treasury to auction 20-year notes

Earnings this week

• Today: Nvidia (after close), TJX, Palo Alto Networks (after close), Lowes, Deere, Target
• Thu: Walmart, Intuit

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks fell sharply Tuesday as investors cut AI exposure before Nvidia’s results and digested yet another big AI infrastructure commitment. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, the Dow 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.2%, with mega caps driving the move. Nvidia dropped about 2.8% and Microsoft 2.7%, while Amazon slumped 4.4%, as their combined 15 billion dollar investment in Anthropic and Anthropic’s 30 billion dollar Azure compute pledge underlined how much cash is now locked into AI buildout. Home Depot sank roughly 6.0% after cutting its profit outlook, and PDD fell about 7.3% as revenue growth slowed to 9% despite an earnings beat, keeping pressure on richly valued consumer internet names.
• Europe: European equities fell to roughly one month lows on Tuesday as the global AI unwind and sticky rate expectations knocked cyclicals and financials. The STOXX 50 dropped 1.9% and the STOXX 600 1.8%, while the FTSE 100 in London lost about 1.3%, with weakness broad across regions. Banks led declines, with names such as Santander and Intesa Sanpaolo down more than 3.0% as higher yields and recession worries weighed on loan growth expectations. Consumer discretionary and tech also struggled, with Adidas and Adyen losing more than 2.0% as investors questioned premium valuations ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, which are seen as a global read on AI demand. Healthcare stood out on the upside, with Roche jumping around 6.8% after positive late stage data for its breast cancer drug Giredestrant raised hopes for a new blockbuster franchise.
• Asia: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.7% to about 25,930, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 and other regional benchmarks also finished lower as investors locked in recent gains in AI, autos and hardware. In Hong Kong, electric vehicle maker XPeng slid roughly 11% after strong third quarter figures were overshadowed by softer than expected fourth quarter guidance, while aluminium producer China Hongqiao dropped about 6.5% on a discounted share sale. Xiaomi eased after warning that soaring memory chip costs will force smartphone price increases even as third quarter revenue grew 22.3% and its EV business turned profitable for the first time. Baidu reported a 7.0% year on year revenue decline, as an 18% slump in advertising offset growth in cloud and AI, keeping sentiment cautious around Chinese internet platforms.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains elevated as investors balance a weaker global equity tone with a heavy macro calendar — and a major corporate catalyst. The VIX trades around 24.7, near a one-month high, while short-dated gauges such as VIX1D and VIX9D continue to climb. Beyond today’s UK and eurozone inflation data, tomorrow’s delayed U.S. jobs report, and tonight’s FOMC minutes, markets are also bracing for Nvidia’s earnings later today.
• Given Nvidia’s oversized influence on global equity sentiment — especially across AI, chips and broader tech leadership — its results could either calm nerves or add a fresh layer of uncertainty. Strong numbers may help reduce volatility by restoring confidence in growth and AI-related themes, while any disappointment could reinforce the cautious tone seen across markets this week.
• Based on options pricing, the S&P 500 is currently pricing an expected weekly move of roughly ±1.9% into the 21 November expiry.
• Skew indicator: SPX options still show downside puts priced slightly richer than upside calls, signalling steady demand for portfolio protection but no signs of outright panic.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are trying to stabilise after the sharp drop earlier this week. Bitcoin trades around USD 91,000, up modestly overnight but still hovering near a seven-month low as traders remain cautious ahead of the delayed U.S. jobs data and shifting expectations for Fed policy. The macro backdrop — higher real yields, firmer dollar, and the recent tech-led equity sell-off — remains a headwind for risk assets generally.
• Ether, solana and XRP show small, mixed moves but remain broadly subdued, reflecting a wait-and-see mood across altcoins. Among ETF vehicles, IBIT edged higher again, while ETHA continued its recovery, suggesting selective dip-buying but no decisive resurgence in flows. For long-term investors, the key question now is whether these products can maintain demand through a more volatile macro phase — something that typically distinguishes structural allocators from short-term traders.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries rallied yesterday on softer risk sentiment. The benchmark 2-year yield fell back as much as seven basis points to 3.54% before closing at 3.57%, while the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.115%. Today the US treasury will auction 20-year notes.
• The spread between US high yield corporate debt yields and US treasury yields widened again yesterday, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread we track widening eight basis points to match the cycle high since June at 304 basis points.
• Japan’s long-dated government bonds came under pressure again ahead of a key fiscal package announcement from the government in Japan on Friday. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield hit a new post-2008 high of 1.781% before bids came in and sent the yield back to 1.765% in later Tokyo hours, up almost two basis points on the day.

Commodities

• Oil prices steadied as traders balanced rising US stockpiles and persistent concerns about a global supply glut against uncertainty surrounding upcoming Russian sanctions. WTI continues to hold above USD 61, while Brent trades near USD 65. The API reported a 4.4 million-barrel rise in US crude inventories, a build that—if confirmed by today’s EIA data—would lift stockpiles to their highest level in more than five months.
• Gas oil futures in London and NY ULSD, both key diesel benchmarks, trade more than 7% higher over the past week. The strength reflects looming US sanctions on Russia, a major global diesel supplier, with recent disruptions and tightening flows widening diesel’s premium over crude.
• Gold trades higher after once again holding support at USD 4,000 during another risk-off session across global equities, led by weakness in the US ahead of key Nvidia earnings. The price action highlights how forced selling from leveraged traders in a rising-volatility environment is being steadily absorbed by longer-term investors and central banks. Silver meanwhile trades around USD 51.40 after finding fresh demand below USD 50 earlier in the week.

Currencies

• The JPY fell to new local lows as the market frets the incoming fiscal package from the Takaichi-led government to be announced this Friday, with USDJPY posting fresh highs of 155.73 before pulling back and EURJPY trying to get comfortable at new record highs since the introduction of the euro above the 180.00 level. The US dollar remains very rangebound as contagion from equity market volatility has not seeped into the currency or bonds markets ex-Japan.

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