Investor Q&A: Iran ceasefire and how to position

Key points:

• US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire and Hormuz reopening, removing the worst immediate tail risk, which explains the sharp relief move across oil, equities, and risk assets.
• Markets can now start to put some rate cuts back on the table, but they are unlikely to fully erase the recent shock unless energy flows normalize quickly and diplomacy holds.
• This is a pause, not a full reset, so tactical relief can continue near term but structural risks around oil, inflation, and geopolitics have not disappeared.

---

What happened?

A temporary two-week ceasefire was reached just before President Trump’s deadline on Tuesday at 8pm ET, after a very tense build-up in which markets feared a much broader escalation. Pakistan helped mediate the deal, talks are expected in Islamabad on April 10, and Iran has indicated safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during this window.

How did markets react?

The reaction was dramatic. Crude fell around 15%, the Nikkei and Kospi rallied around 5%, and AUD jumped back above 0.70. Gold also stayed firm, but more because it had been trading on inflation fear recently, and that fear is now easing as the immediate oil shock looks less severe.

Why did markets react so strongly?

Markets were positioned for a much worse outcome, including the risk of wider military strikes, a prolonged Hormuz disruption, and another sharp oil shock. Once the immediate tail risk eased, oil plunged, equities rallied, and some of the safe-haven dollar strength began to unwind. It was a classic relief move after markets had been over-hedged for disaster.

Does this mean the crisis is over?

No. This looks more like a pause than a durable peace. The real test is:

• whether strikes really end, especially with reports of fresh missile attacks and exchanges still underway
• whether negotiations are actually progressing
• whether Hormuz remains reliably open, not just temporarily passable
• whether Israel fully aligns with the de-escalation path, as there have been no clear statements yet
• how quickly oil production and exports that went offline can come back
• whether oil stabilises closer to pre-escalation levels
• whether inflation and rates concerns ease or continue to linger

The headlines may calm down first, but the real reset depends on what happens in the days ahead.

What is the outlook for crude oil from here?

In the near term, we think oil can fall further as the war premium comes out. The risk to that view is that a full return to pre-escalation levels may take longer if the ceasefire proves fragile, and oil can still remain at a premium for a few reasons:

• lack of clarity about freedom of navigation in the Strait, with Iran still saying passage requires coordination with its armed forces rather than looking fully and cleanly reopened
• damage assessment across the Gulf energy system, with multiple energy sites struck and timelines for repairs and full output recovery still uncertain
• shipping, insurance, and physical supply chains may take longer to normalise than the headline move in oil suggests

So while the near-term direction may still be lower, oil can correct sharply and still remain structurally nervous if navigation, repairs, and diplomacy do not normalize quickly.

What does this mean for the macro outlook?

The ceasefire could lower the immediate risk of a deeper energy shock, which is likely to be supportive for growth sentiment and risk appetite. The risk is that the macro damage does not disappear overnight because oil, freight, insurance, and supply-chain disruptions can keep some inflation pressure alive even if Hormuz reopens. In that sense, the panic can fade faster than the scars.

Does this bring Fed rate cuts back into view?

The ceasefire and, more importantly, the Hormuz reopening remove the worst immediate oil-tail risk, so markets can start to put some rate cuts back on the table. But they are unlikely to fully erase the recent shock unless energy flows normalize quickly and diplomacy holds.

Brent is still well above its pre-war February level, and disrupted output, shipping delays, and insurance costs may take longer to normalize than the headline move in oil suggests.

So it is unlikely that markets simply go back to pricing the same number of cuts they had before the war. The bigger worry is that some damage may linger even with de-escalation.

Having said that, the rates story still can probably shift from “higher for longer because of war escalation” to “cuts may still come, but not as cleanly or as quickly as before.”

Gold and silver are recovering. Is that sustainable?

Potentially yes. Precious metals are now caught between two forces: easing inflation fear as the immediate oil shock comes down, and continued demand for hedges because the ceasefire may not hold cleanly. That means gold and silver can stay supported, but probably with less of the straight-line panic momentum seen during the peak of the crisis.

Which sectors could benefit most if the ceasefire holds?

In our view, airlines, consumer discretionary, parts of tech, and broader cyclical risk assets should benefit most from lower oil, improving confidence, and a softer dollar. Crypto can also stay supported in that kind of relief environment. This is the market rotating away from fear and back toward growth.

Which sectors could lag?

Energy is likely to be the clearest laggard if oil keeps falling. Defensives may also lose some relative appeal as investors rotate back into cyclicals. Within miners, the picture may be split, with precious metals names holding up better than energy-linked commodity names.

In essence, the Iran playbook is likely to flip tactically. You can check out the Iran playbook shortlist here: Iran Escalation: The Oil Shock Playbook

What could derail this relief trade?

There are still many open questions that could derail the relief trade:

• whether the ceasefire has really gone into effect, with projectiles still reported and intercepted across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait
• whether the message has actually been transmitted across all IRGC units and whether strikes really stop in practice
• whether the April 10 talks in Islamabad produce real progress or just buy time
• what exactly is in Iran’s reported 10-point proposal, which Trump called “a workable basis” but appears to include several maximalist demands that look like non-starters
• whether Hormuz reopens in a way the market can trust, given Trump demanded its “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening while Iran has only said passage is possible for two weeks via coordination with its armed forces
• whether Israel is fully on board, especially with reports suggesting Lebanon may not be included
• whether the ceasefire addresses the underlying issues that drove the war in the first place, including Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, missile arsenal, and proxy funding networks
• whether oil starts to stabilise lower or rebounds again if any of these questions remain unresolved

Relief rallies can run fast, but they can reverse just as quickly when headlines stop cooperating.

How should investors think about positioning now?

Tactically, this still looks like a relief window where cyclicals, selected consumer names, airlines, risk-sensitive FX, and broader equity beta can continue to recover if the ceasefire holds.

Structurally though, investors should not assume geopolitics has gone away. The longer-term lesson remains to stay exposed to AI and growth, but balance that with energy, supply-chain resilience, hard assets, and national-security themes.

For more on positioning for staying exposed to AI while also adding energy, supply-chain resilience, and national-security themes — read our quarterly outlook here: Q2 Outlook for Investors: AI mania meets geopolitical mayhem

---

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.