Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Investment Editor
Summary: While the European stock market is as intertwined in the global economy as any, it provides investment opportunities that can be difficult to find elsewhere. And while the US indices become increasingly tech-heavy, Europe offers a more diversified investment landscape. To highlight some of the European possibilities, we have outlined the best performing stocks over a 5-year period of the massive Euro STOXX 600 index with a market cap of +5 billion euro on the first date of measurement.
With a bit of good grace, you could wedge in the argument that the European stock market is the oldest exchange we have. At least it is pretty widely considered that the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, with roots back to the 1600s, is the oldest modern stock trading venue.
Whether the European stock exchange's status as the old geezer has anything to do with it, the Euro STOXX 600 index offers a pretty well-diversified group of companies covering all of the 11 so-called GICS sectors. At the time of writing, Financials make up the biggest proportion of the index, covering a bit more than 18%. Industrials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Consumer Discretionary round out the top five, while Real Estate is the smallest with 1.3%.
This diversification is worth noting, especially in light of increasing concentration risk in the major US indices, which Peter Garnry, our Head of Equity Strategy, has written about on multiple occasions. Here it is tech stocks that make up an increasingly large proportion of the indices, meaning that the risks that tech stock faces are also prevalent when investing in the indices.
The Euro STOXX 600 index has enjoyed the same positive performance as most indices across the globe have. As such, it has climbed around 40% from December 2018 to December 2023. Comparatively, indices like e.g. the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq has had higher returns over the five-year period, but that is in large part due to the growing tech concentration mentioned above, which also comes with specific risks.
You can gain exposure to the index through products such as the iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF, the Lyxor Core STOXX 600 ETF and the BNP Paribas Easy Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF.
Since 2019, the 20 best performing stocks have all returned more than 180%, with Novo Nordisk as the best performing with 433%. This has also meant that Novo Nordisk has become Europe’s most valuable company in terms of market cap. The second most valuable company, interestingly, is the 20th best performing, LVMH. ASML, which has the second best performance, has squeezed itself in as the fourth most valuable company in the region, just behind Nestlé, which, with a 5-year performance of 70%, doesn’t make the cut for this list.
The 20 top performers come from 10 different countries. Four of those are represented with three companies, one of which, we are proud to tell you, is Denmark (where Saxo is also headquartered). The others are the UK, France, and Switzerland. Italy and the Netherlands are represented with two companies, while Germany, Sweden, Ireland, and Belgium all have one on the list.
Sources: Saxo, Bloomberg and ChatGPT
Performance is calculated based on the following:
STOXX 600 index: price on the last day of the month from December 2018 - December 2023
STOXX 600 individual stock performance: Price on January 1, 2019 - price on January 9, 2024.
ETFs mentioned here are chosen based on Morningstar rating and last three month's popularity in SaxoTraderGo with Key Information Documents.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)