The Week Ahead: UK Spring Statement, US nonfarm payrolls and Broadcom earnings

Equity markets have seen a wide dispersion in performance with what’s been dubbed the revenge of the old economy as AI fears take over. There has been real damage across financials, tech, software, insurers, asset managers, consumer cyclicals and communication services, while healthcare, energy, materials, consumer defensives and utilities have proved resilient.Nvidia beat earnings expectations but slumped 5% in the following session. We’ll be watching for fresh signs of disruption from AI platforms such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Meanwhile there has been no let up for London with the FTSE 100 making a series of fresh record highs as it approached 11,000.

Looking ahead, the nonfarm payrolls report in the US is the major macroeconomic event of the week alongside PMI data for manufacturing and services, while chipmaker Broadcom provides the key earnings report for a fresh look at the AI trade. The UK’s Spring Statement provides a set piece event of note as investors weigh whether political uncertainty could stoke moves in gilts and sterling.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday, 2 March

Markets are looking to see whether US economic growth kicks on after the government shutdown slowed output in the last quarter of the year. How fast the US economy grows will be material for considerations about the Fed’s policy path and earnings resilience. The US ISM manufacturing PMI for February is the major event therefore. We look to see if there are continued signs of momentum after the January report showed the manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in 12 months.

AST SpaceMobile, which has been among the most popular retail stocks over the last 12 months, reports earnings. In the UK, Smith & Nephew and Bunzl report annual results.

Tuesday, 3 March

It’s the Spring Statement in the UK. Whilst it should not include any major policy changes, the government’s by-election loss in Gorton and Denton means there is added spice to the announcement. We could see a u-turn on student loan repayments and markets are bound to be assessing whether the election defeat spells the end for prime minister Keir Starmer.

Eurozone flash CPI inflation data is due to remain steady after January's flash showed 1.7%, the slowest since September 2024. Core inflation fell to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. The Bank of Japan governor Ueda is due to speak.

Among companies, Fresnillo, Intertek, Aberdeen Group and Greggs report preliminary full-year results. In the US we will keep an eye on CrowdStrike earnings with the stock caught up in the recent AI fear trade selloff.

Wednesday, 4 March

The US ISM services PMI is the next piece of the growth puzzle for investors to consider. It’s been in expansion territory for 19 months and shows no signs of slowing. Elsewhere check the ADP employment report as a prelude to the key nonfarm payroll data later in the week. Ahead of these reports we have the RatingDog manufacturing and services PMI surveys from China, which alongside the official survey data constitute the first major economic releases since the Lunar New Year holiday.

Broadcom (Q1 FY26) is the major earnings release of the day hot off the heels of Nvidia last week. Note NVDA slumped 5% after earnings despite a big beat, indicating the bar for a beat-and-raise is high in this space. Broadcom itself finished the year strong with Q4 revenue up 28% to $18bn, with AI semiconductor revenues up 74% to $6.5bn. Investors will be looking for this pace of growth to continue – management guided Q1 AI semiconductor revenue to double YoY to $8.2bn - as well as fresh orders to add to the AI backlog of $73bn. At the last earnings call the CFO sparked a selloff in the stock as she warned investors to expect a Q1 margin decline of about 100bps, which has emerged a key overhang for the stock. Any commentary on this situation alleviating will be welcomed by investors.

Thursday,5 March

Earnings from Reckitt Benckiser, Aviva, Endeavour Mining, Rentokil, Admiral, Taylor Wimpey, Harbour Energy, Entain, Serco and ITV make for a busy day of releases in London. Costco is the major US earnings report to watch. Elsewhere we will be looking at the weekly unemployment claims data from the US.

Friday, 6 March

Nonfarm payrolls will be the key event as investors judge the state of the US economy. Last month the 130,000 print, versus the 55,000 - 70,000 forecast range, and the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.3%allayed concerns about the softening labour market, despite sharp downward revisions to the prior year’s figures. The data saw investors dial back US rate cut expectations, adding to the sense that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold for some months.