Quick Take Asia

Asia Market Quick Take – 1 April, 2026

Macro 6 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
APAC Research

Key points:

  • Macro: US plans to leave Iran in 2-3 weeks
  • Equities: Nasdaq 100 gains 3.8%, S&P 500 rallies 2.9% on Iran comments to end war
  • FX: Dollar drops as Iran de-escalation; USDJPY below 159
  • Commodities: Gold extended a three‑day advance pushing above $4,700.
  • Fixed income: US Treasuries rally, paring their biggest monthly loss in over a year

------------------------------------------------------------------

Screenshot 2026-04-01 090425

 Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

  

Macro:

  • President Trump said the US could leave Iran within two to three weeks and indicated a deal with Tehran may be close, raising hopes the war that has jolted global markets may be nearing a conclusion.
  • Iran's official news agency said the country's president was willing to end the conflict but wants guarantees against further attacks. Trump also urged Straits users to secure it themselves.
  • US job openings fell by 358,000 to 6.88 million in February 2026, below expectations, with declines across all regions and in accommodation, food services, and mining. Hires slipped to 4.8 million, while separations held at 5.0 million, with quits at 3.0 million and layoffs and discharges at 1.7 million.
  • US job quits fell to 2.97 million in February 2026, the lowest since August 2020, down from 3.13 million in January and 3.15 million a year earlier. The quits rate eased to 1.9%, with declines across all regions and most major sectors.
  • Japan’s large manufacturers grew more confident for a fourth straight quarter, with the Tankan index rising to 17 from 16, beating forecasts and supporting the BOJ’s ongoing rate-hike stance.
  • South Korea's exports continued to surge in March with shipments adjusted for working-day differences soaring 41.9% from a year earlier, driven by robust semiconductor demand.

Equities: 

  • US: US equity indexes surged on Tuesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping more than 1,125 points, the S&P 500 up 2.9% to 6,528.52, and the Nasdaq Composite catapulting almost 800 points or 3.8% to 21,590.63 amid optimism that the Iran war is about to end. Communication services, technology, and consumer discretionary led the gains. S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% as of 8:04pm Tuesday in New York, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5%. Nike shares sank 9% after hours after the company forecast more falling sales and conceded its turnaround efforts were taking longer than expected.
  • EU: European stock index futures climbed sharply with contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 up about 1.9% as of 1:18am in London on hopes for an end to the Iran war. The FTSE 100 rose for the second day on Tuesday, climbing 0.5% or 48.49 points to 10,176.45 in London, reaching the highest closing level since March 18, with Rolls-Royce contributing the most to the index gain.
  • Asia: Asian stocks jumped at the open, tracking a Wall Street rally, with equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia rising and sending the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 1.6%. Japan's Nikkei climbed more than 3% to 52,792.66 while the Topix rose 3.1% to 3,607.25. South Korea's Kospi surged nearly 5% at the open to 5,330.04, snapping a four-day loss, with the Korea Exchange briefly halting program trading after Kospi 200 futures jumped more than 5%, triggering a sidecar. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumped as much as 7.1% and 9.5% respectively. Recruit Holdings shares rose 7.6% after announcing a buyback plan. KDDI shares fell 3.3% after cutting fiscal year earnings forecasts.

Earnings this week:

  • Wednesday: SAIC Motor

FX:

  • USD softened on Tuesday, trimming its strong monthly gain as reports of possible de‑escalation in the Iran conflict reduced safe‑haven demand The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6% on the day but still ended March up about 2.4%, its best month since July.
  • Intervention worries persisted in Japan as USDJPY slipped 0.6% to 158.69 but remained up 1.7% on the month, with TD Securities flagging higher intervention risk only on sustained moves toward 162–164.
  • USDCAD edged lower as Canadian GDP showed modest early‑year growth, and EURUSD rebounded 0.9% to 1.1563 despite a 2.1% monthly drop amid highly volatile European rates.
  • AUDUSD climbed 0.7% to 0.6900, extending a five‑quarter winning streak, with the RBA highlighting uncertainty over its policy path.

Commodities:

  • Oil steadied with Brent trading below $105 a barrel after losing 3.2% on Tuesday, while WTI was near $102, as President Trump signaled the potential end to the Iran war that has roiled markets, even after more troops arrived in the region and Tehran said no peace talks were taking place.
  • Gold extended a three‑day advance, with bullion above $4,700 an ounce after a 3.5% jump, as President Donald Trump said the US could end the Iran war within two to three weeks and had largely met its military goals, while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian signalled readiness to end the war if its demands are met.

Fixed income:

  • Treasuries extended Monday’s belly‑led rally as oil fell on hopes of Iran de‑escalation and stocks rose with traders rebuilding Fed rate‑cut premia for this year and 2027, though 30‑year bonds erased gains. Month‑end rebalance and the market broadly trimmed its biggest monthly loss in over a year. The newest 10-year JGB yield fell 3 basis points to 2.325% after the Tankan survey beat forecasts across the board with a notable jump for the large manufacturing outlook, opening the door for a BOJ hike this month.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

 

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return

    Outrageous Predictions

    Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...

This content is marketing material. 

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Market Ltd. (SCML) provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice or a recommendation.

SCML content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

SCML partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conducted on its platform. Some partners also pay retrocessions contingent on clients investing in products from those partners. 

While SCML receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. SCML does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992