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Nvidia's earnings greeted with mild sell-off. What now?
Summary: Today features special guest and former Saxonian, Peter Garnry, CEO and Co-founder of Gesda Capital, who takes us through his thoughts on Nvidia after the earnings call yesterday and especially its medium to longer term growth potential versus the current valuation. We also cover CrowdStrike and Snowflake earnings, where Peter looks for investment opportunities when so many pockets of the market are overvalued, thoughts on the geopolitical backdrop and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s links
Peter Garny, CEO and Co-founder of Gesda Capital has already put together some great notes for the long term investor and other market observations in his Garnry Investments substack. Peter said he is reading aptly titled Buffett biography Snowball from about 15 years ago. Snowballing sure is easier when you can find growing companies with a P/E of 1 (yes, ONE) as opposed to maybe 30x or 40x. Sort of like the difference between making a snowball/snowman with snow that falls at +1 on a humid day versus the dusty stuff that falls at -10. Endgame Macro is a must follow on X. Here’s a post on why the breakout in Japan’s 30-year JGB yield to a new modern high is a big deal for global markets, due to the transmission mechanism into other sovereign bond markets. Legendary short seller Jim Chanos, who called Enron, Tyco, Valeant and others (and badly missed on Tesla, failing to recognize the new era of semi-religious cult of personality techno-utopia dynamic), weighs in with, you guessed it, a less-then-generous take on AI, Crypto and Crony Capitalism. Some important points and parallels with the tech-telecom bubble capex cycle. By the way, contrast what Chanos is saying on Crypto with what Michael Every says about the possible import and strategic use of stable coins in the interview on the Macro Voices podcast (starts around 20+ minutes in). The positive EURJPY trend is the longest standing trend, according to my trending indicator at least, within all major G10 currency pairs - at 123 trading days and having moved 8.3 ATR to the upside from the starting point at its highest point. The pair is looking pivotal according to that trending indicator if it closes at new lows for a day or two from here, not that this establishes a new downtrend immediately. So far today, the JPY has steered away from fresh strengthening after a rally overnight, in part on US treasury yields pushing lower and perhaps on the JGB market staying orderly despite weak demand metrics, the weakest since 2009 in fact, in an auction of 2-year JGBs. Stay tuned - the JPY rally scenario has been the one refusing to materialize for months since the Liberation Day meltdown in global asset markets.Chart of the Day - Hey big trender, EURJPY
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