Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Rolling options around events adds complexity - but also opportunity. In part 3 of our four-part guide, we explore how earnings, dividends, and macro catalysts affect your trades, and how smart timing and clear exit logic can make all the difference.
In the first two parts of this series, we looked at how rolling can help you adjust your positions—whether it’s a single option like a covered call or a multi-leg spread like a vertical or iron condor. We’ve seen how rolling gives you more time, flexibility, and control. But rolling doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Sometimes, the calendar matters just as much as the chart.
This third part focuses on rolling around key events—like earnings announcements, central bank decisions, or ex-dividend dates—and how to make smart decisions about when to roll, when to stay put, and when to simply exit a trade.
Events inject uncertainty. That’s why implied volatility (IV) often rises in the days leading up to earnings or macro announcements. And that matters for option sellers: the higher the IV, the richer the premium—but also the greater the risk of a sudden move.
Rolling can help you adjust your exposure around these moments—but only if done with intent.
Let’s walk through a few common event-driven situations.
Let’s say you’ve sold a short put under a stock that’s about to report earnings next week. The premium is elevated because of the expected volatility, but that also means a gap—up or down—is likely.
You have a few choices:
What not to do? Don’t roll into earnings just to avoid closing. If the numbers no longer justify the risk, stepping aside is often the smarter move.
Covered calls involve an extra layer: dividends. If you’ve sold a call option and the stock goes ex-div soon, early assignment risk becomes real—especially if your call is in-the-money and has little time value left.
In these cases:
This helps you keep the shares and still capture the dividend—if that’s part of your plan.
What if you’ve just been through an earnings event or macro surprise? The position is still open, but the environment has changed.
Ask yourself:
If the trade survived and the outlook still fits, you might roll to lock in gains or reposition more conservatively.
But if the picture has changed—dramatically—you may want to close and move on. Rolling should never be a way to avoid making a decision.
Here’s a simple decision framework:
Consider rolling if:
Consider closing if:
Sometimes, exiting is the cleanest and most disciplined move.
Profit and loss targets are common, but time-based exits are underrated. If you’ve been in a trade for a while and the price hasn’t moved—or you’ve rolled it more than once without improving the picture—it may be time to close. Opportunity cost matters.
Events bring both opportunity and risk. Rolling around them can be useful—but only if done thoughtfully. In many cases, the best move isn’t to roll, but to close. That’s not giving up. That’s managing well.
In part 4 of this series, we’ll pull together everything we’ve covered and walk through a full set of frequently asked questions—real scenarios that traders face when deciding whether to roll or exit.
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