Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 13 April 2026

Geopolitics drove a full market cycle this week – from stress to relief and back to uncertainty.

Markets moved sharply through the week as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz first lifted oil and volatility, then a temporary ceasefire triggered a broad rally, before renewed escalation brought caution back. Inflation re-accelerated, central bank expectations shifted, and earnings season began to take focus. The key takeaway is simple: macro and geopolitics are again dominating price action across asset classes.

Equities

Relief rally met macro reality across regions.

• United States: The S&P 500 gained 2.5% on 8 April as ceasefire hopes drove a sharp rotation into cyclicals, before stabilising into Friday as inflation and sentiment data cooled enthusiasm. Large-cap tech, including Amazon and Meta Platforms, remained supported by AI demand narratives.
• Europe: Indices such as the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) rallied on falling energy prices, with industrial and consumer names leading the recovery.
• Asia: Strong semiconductor-led gains from Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company emerged early in the week before profit-taking emerged as macro uncertainty returned.

Market pulse: Equities remain reactive to energy and geopolitical shifts, with conviction still limited despite the mid-week surge.

Looking ahead – equities

Earnings take centre stage, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America setting the tone for financials. Tech leadership will be tested by ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Expect stock-level dispersion to rise as fundamentals begin to matter more alongside macro risk.

Volatility

Sharp compression followed by renewed tension.

• VIX trajectory: Volatility started elevated, with the VIX at 24.17 early in the week, before dropping to around 21 mid-week and further to 19.49 by Friday as ceasefire hopes eased market stress.
• Renewed pressure: Volatility began to rise again into the new week, with futures pointing higher near 22 as tensions resurfaced. Expected moves compressed significantly during the mid-week lull, reflecting a temporary stabilisation in sentiment.

Market pulse: Volatility eased, but remains highly headline-sensitive and vulnerable to fast reversals.

Looking ahead – volatility

Volatility is likely to stay reactive, with geopolitical headlines and earnings both acting as catalysts. A sustained move higher in oil or negative earnings surprises could quickly reprice short-term volatility, while stable conditions may keep VIX contained near current levels.

Options sentiment

Disciplined participation with a persistent hedging bias.

Options flow reflected controlled engagement rather than strong conviction. Index positioning showed steady demand for downside protection, while large-cap tech flows shifted toward spreads and overwrites instead of outright calls. Financials reinforced this pattern, with event-driven, defined-risk positioning dominating ahead of earnings.

In contrast, energy and metals saw more constructive flows, though consistently paired with hedging, highlighting conditional optimism rather than outright bullishness.

Market pulse: Investors stayed active, but prioritised risk-controlled exposure over directional bets.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Earnings season will be the key driver of positioning. Expect continued use of spreads and structured trades, particularly in financials and tech, with implied volatility likely to rise around key events and skew remaining sensitive to macro risk.

Digital assets

Resilient, but still macro-driven.

• Bitcoin: Traded between roughly $68k and $72k, holding steady despite sharp macro swings across other risk assets.
• Ethereum and altcoins: Ethereum remained near $2.1k–$2.2k, while XRP and Solana showed selective strength. ETF flows remained supportive, with continued inflows into iShares Bitcoin Trust, while iShares Ethereum Trust flows were more cautious.

Crypto continues to behave as a high-beta extension of global risk sentiment rather than a standalone driver.

Market pulse: Crypto remains stable, but direction is macro-dependent.

Looking ahead – digital assets

Crypto will likely continue tracking broader risk sentiment. ETF flows remain the key signal to watch – sustained inflows could support further upside, while macro shocks or equity weakness could quickly pressure prices.

Fixed income

Yields whipsawed by inflation and energy dynamics.

• US Treasuries: Yields rose early in the week, dropped sharply mid-week on easing energy fears, and then stabilised higher into Friday. The 10-year yield moved between roughly 4.24% and 4.35%, reflecting shifting expectations around inflation and monetary policy.
• Policy outlook: Stronger CPI data reinforced a more cautious outlook for rate cuts, with markets reducing the number of anticipated cuts priced in for 2026.

Market pulse: Bond markets remain anchored to inflation expectations, with energy-driven CPI the dominant variable.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Focus shifts to central bank communication and inflation persistence. Any sustained rise in energy prices could push yields higher, while weaker data or dovish signals could stabilise the curve. Watch for commentary from Fed officials around the earnings period.

Commodities

Oil remained the dominant macro driver across asset classes.

• Crude oil: Drove cross-asset moves throughout the week, rising above $110 early on, dropping below $100 on ceasefire hopes, and rebounding again as tensions escalated. The Strait of Hormuz remained the key risk channel, with supply disruption fears driving volatility in both directions.
• Metals: Followed the broader risk sentiment, posting mid-week gains before stabilising. No independent catalyst emerged; metals moved in line with the macro mood.

Market pulse: Commodities, especially oil, remain central to macro risk transmission across all asset classes.

Looking ahead – commodities

Geopolitics will continue to dominate the oil price. Any disruption in shipping or supply through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices higher again, while signs of de-escalation may cap gains. Metals will likely track broader risk sentiment and global growth expectations.

Currencies

Dollar swings tracked geopolitics and rate repricing.

• US dollar: Strengthened early in the week, weakened mid-week on risk-on sentiment from ceasefire hopes, and rebounded again into the weekend as tensions returned and inflation data supported yields.
• Key pairs: EURUSD traded between roughly 1.15 and 1.17, while USDJPY remained elevated near 159–160. Commodity-linked currencies moved in line with oil prices, reflecting the energy-FX transmission channel.

Market pulse: FX markets remain driven by energy-linked inflation expectations and rate differentials.

Looking ahead – currencies

Currency moves will continue to reflect rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Watch for further volatility in USD pairs, particularly if inflation or energy dynamics shift again. USDJPY remains elevated and sensitive to any change in Fed guidance.

Key takeaways

• Geopolitics drove rapid cross-asset swings, with ceasefire hopes mid-week triggering a sharp risk-on move that partially reversed as tensions resurfaced.
• The S&P 500 gained 2.5% mid-week; European indices including the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) surged on falling energy costs.
• The VIX moved from 24.17 to 19.49 over the week before futures pointed back toward 22, reflecting sustained headline sensitivity.
• Options flows shifted to spreads and overwrites in tech and financials, reflecting disciplined, hedged positioning ahead of earnings.
• Crude oil swung from above $110 to below $100 and back, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key risk channel.
• US 10-year Treasury yields oscillated between 4.24% and 4.35%, driven by energy-linked inflation re-acceleration and shifting rate cut expectations.
• Bitcoin held between $68k and $72k, with ETF inflows remaining supportive despite macro volatility elsewhere.
• Earnings season begins: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are the key names to watch.

Looking ahead – week of 13 April to 17 April 2026

The dominant dynamic heading into the new week is the overlap of earnings season and persistent geopolitical risk. This is a structurally complex setup: corporate results can deliver fundamental anchors, but a single headline from the Strait of Hormuz can override earnings signals within hours. That combination makes for an unusually high-dispersion environment.

Key events this week centre on major financial sector earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America reporting in the first half of the week. These results will set the tone for financials broadly and will be closely watched for commentary on credit conditions, consumer health, and trading revenues. Technology and semiconductors follow, with ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reporting later in the week, testing whether AI-driven demand narratives remain intact. On the macro side, watch US retail sales and any Federal Reserve speakers for fresh guidance on the rate path.

The defining event remains geopolitical: any fresh escalation or de-escalation at the Strait of Hormuz will have immediate cross-asset implications, particularly for oil, USD pairs, and rate expectations. A sustained move in crude above $110 would likely put renewed pressure on equities and fixed income simultaneously, while a credible de-escalation could unlock the next leg of the relief rally seen mid-week.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 13 Apr – Markets reopen; watch weekend geopolitical developments and oil price gaps
Tue 14 Apr – JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings; US retail sales (Mar)
Wed 15 Apr – Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings; Bank of America Q1 earnings; Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thu 16 Apr – ASML Q1 earnings; US initial jobless claims; Netflix Q1 earnings
Fri 17 Apr – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q1 earnings; University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Concluding remarks

Markets ended the week stronger, but the underlying picture remains unstable. The rapid shift from stress to relief and back again highlights how dependent sentiment is on geopolitical developments, with oil functioning as the primary transmission mechanism across equities, fixed income, currencies, and crypto. Inflation pressures tied to energy are complicating the policy outlook, while earnings season now offers a potential anchor for fundamentals – but only if macro conditions allow the signal to come through.

For investors, this is a market that rewards discipline. Staying engaged while actively managing risk remains essential, as both opportunities and shocks can emerge quickly and with limited warning.

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