Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 27... Pivotal US 4th of July Wkd
Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Week # 27... US 4th of July Weekend
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 27…
- What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Key aspect of this wk will be the 4th of Jul wkd upcoming in the US, which will see the US off this Fri (3rd Jul). This will be a one of a kind given Covid-19, the lockdown, protests, social unrest, the structural racial & class segregation issues in the US, plus of course the counting down to the elections.
- Yet the pivotal month start NFP, Unemployment Rate & Claims will be coming through on Thu Jul 2nd. As if that was not enough, we will also be getting FOMC minutes late Wed US evening (Early Thu Asia Morning)
- Week obviously will capture the classic month end, start… yet that much more pivotal given that it’s the end of 2Q20 & start of 3Q20 – we could see a lot of focus on rebalancing on risk-parity real money players, passive indexers, as well as potential need for USD liquidity
- It worth keeping in mind, end of last month has some whacky moves on the last day, which had some beautiful mean reversions once the new month kicked off.
- Economics: Final PMIs, US ISM mfg. & monthly core data such as NFP, AHE, U/R.
- Central Banks: No scheduled major central bank decisions on the calendar. Focus here will likely be Powell & Mnuchin testimony before the House (Wed Jul 1st, 12:30 am SGT)
- Holidays: US out on Fri for 4th of Jul Wkd. CA & HK out on Wed 1st of Jul
- US: ISM mfg, Construction Spending, Chicago PMI, NFP, U/R Jobless Claims, AHE, Factory Orders, ADP, Challenger Job cuts, Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Mins, Powell Testimony (Wed Jul 1st 12:30 am SGT)
- CH: Mfg. PMI 50.6p, Serv. PMI 53.6p, Caixin Mfg. PMI 50.7p, Caixin Serv. PMI 55.0p (recall that last month the Caixin readings surprised heavily to the upside)
- EZ: Final PMIs, PPI, U/R, Flsh CPI
- JP: Retails Sales, U/R, Tankan, Final Mfg. PMI, Monetary Base
- UK: Final PMIs, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, BoE’s gov. Bailey speaking, Final 1Q GDP -2.0% e/p
- AU: Private Sector Credit, AIG Mfg. Index, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales
- NZ: ANZ Biz. Conf., Building Consents
- CA: House Prices -13.4%p, Monthly GDP -7.2%p, Trade Balance, Mfg. PMI 40.6p
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