Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 27... Pivotal US 4th of July Wkd
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Week # 27... US 4th of July Weekend
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 27…
- What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Key aspect of this wk will be the 4th of Jul wkd upcoming in the US, which will see the US off this Fri (3rd Jul). This will be a one of a kind given Covid-19, the lockdown, protests, social unrest, the structural racial & class segregation issues in the US, plus of course the counting down to the elections.
- Yet the pivotal month start NFP, Unemployment Rate & Claims will be coming through on Thu Jul 2nd. As if that was not enough, we will also be getting FOMC minutes late Wed US evening (Early Thu Asia Morning)
- Week obviously will capture the classic month end, start… yet that much more pivotal given that it’s the end of 2Q20 & start of 3Q20 – we could see a lot of focus on rebalancing on risk-parity real money players, passive indexers, as well as potential need for USD liquidity
- It worth keeping in mind, end of last month has some whacky moves on the last day, which had some beautiful mean reversions once the new month kicked off.
- Economics: Final PMIs, US ISM mfg. & monthly core data such as NFP, AHE, U/R.
- Central Banks: No scheduled major central bank decisions on the calendar. Focus here will likely be Powell & Mnuchin testimony before the House (Wed Jul 1st, 12:30 am SGT)
- Holidays: US out on Fri for 4th of Jul Wkd. CA & HK out on Wed 1st of Jul
- US: ISM mfg, Construction Spending, Chicago PMI, NFP, U/R Jobless Claims, AHE, Factory Orders, ADP, Challenger Job cuts, Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Mins, Powell Testimony (Wed Jul 1st 12:30 am SGT)
- CH: Mfg. PMI 50.6p, Serv. PMI 53.6p, Caixin Mfg. PMI 50.7p, Caixin Serv. PMI 55.0p (recall that last month the Caixin readings surprised heavily to the upside)
- EZ: Final PMIs, PPI, U/R, Flsh CPI
- JP: Retails Sales, U/R, Tankan, Final Mfg. PMI, Monetary Base
- UK: Final PMIs, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, BoE’s gov. Bailey speaking, Final 1Q GDP -2.0% e/p
- AU: Private Sector Credit, AIG Mfg. Index, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales
- NZ: ANZ Biz. Conf., Building Consents
- CA: House Prices -13.4%p, Monthly GDP -7.2%p, Trade Balance, Mfg. PMI 40.6p
Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
Have a brilliant day
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.