Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 27... Pivotal US 4th of July Wkd

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Week # 27... US 4th of July Weekend

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 27…
  • What kind of week are you trying to have?
  • Key aspect of this wk will be the 4th of Jul wkd upcoming in the US, which will see the US off this Fri (3rd Jul). This will be a one of a kind given Covid-19, the lockdown, protests, social unrest, the structural racial & class segregation issues in the US, plus of course the counting down to the elections.
  • Yet the pivotal month start NFP, Unemployment Rate & Claims will be coming through on Thu Jul 2nd. As if that was not enough, we will also be getting FOMC minutes late Wed US evening (Early Thu Asia Morning)  
  • Week obviously will capture the classic month end, start… yet that much more pivotal given that it’s the end of 2Q20 & start of 3Q20 – we could see a lot of focus on rebalancing on risk-parity real money players, passive indexers, as well as potential need for USD liquidity
  • It worth keeping in mind, end of last month has some whacky moves on the last day, which had some beautiful mean reversions once the new month kicked off.  
  • Economics: Final PMIs, US ISM mfg. & monthly core data such as NFP, AHE, U/R.  
  • Central Banks: No scheduled major central bank decisions on the calendar. Focus here will likely be Powell & Mnuchin testimony before the House (Wed Jul 1st, 12:30 am SGT)  
  • Holidays: US out on Fri for 4th of Jul Wkd. CA & HK out on Wed 1st of Jul
  • US: ISM mfg, Construction Spending, Chicago PMI, NFP, U/R Jobless Claims, AHE, Factory Orders, ADP, Challenger Job cuts, Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Mins, Powell Testimony (Wed Jul 1st 12:30 am SGT)  
  • CH: Mfg. PMI 50.6p, Serv. PMI 53.6p, Caixin Mfg. PMI 50.7p, Caixin Serv. PMI 55.0p (recall that last month the Caixin readings surprised heavily to the upside)
  • EZ: Final PMIs, PPI, U/R, Flsh CPI
  • JP: Retails Sales, U/R, Tankan, Final Mfg. PMI, Monetary Base
  • UK: Final PMIs, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, BoE’s gov. Bailey speaking, Final 1Q GDP -2.0% e/p
  • AU: Private Sector Credit, AIG Mfg. Index, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales
  • NZ: ANZ Biz. Conf., Building Consents
  • CA: House Prices -13.4%p, Monthly GDP -7.2%p, Trade Balance, Mfg. PMI 40.6p

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Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way

Have a brilliant day

 

Namaste,

KVP

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