Login Open account
Switzerland
CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.21% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred.
Show more
CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.21% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
Show less
By using our website you agree to our use of cookies in accordance with our cookie policy.
Okay

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 27... Pivotal US 4th of July Wkd

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Week # 27... US 4th of July Weekend

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 27…
  • What kind of week are you trying to have?
  • Key aspect of this wk will be the 4th of Jul wkd upcoming in the US, which will see the US off this Fri (3rd Jul). This will be a one of a kind given Covid-19, the lockdown, protests, social unrest, the structural racial & class segregation issues in the US, plus of course the counting down to the elections.
  • Yet the pivotal month start NFP, Unemployment Rate & Claims will be coming through on Thu Jul 2nd. As if that was not enough, we will also be getting FOMC minutes late Wed US evening (Early Thu Asia Morning)  
  • Week obviously will capture the classic month end, start… yet that much more pivotal given that it’s the end of 2Q20 & start of 3Q20 – we could see a lot of focus on rebalancing on risk-parity real money players, passive indexers, as well as potential need for USD liquidity
  • It worth keeping in mind, end of last month has some whacky moves on the last day, which had some beautiful mean reversions once the new month kicked off.  
  • Economics: Final PMIs, US ISM mfg. & monthly core data such as NFP, AHE, U/R.  
  • Central Banks: No scheduled major central bank decisions on the calendar. Focus here will likely be Powell & Mnuchin testimony before the House (Wed Jul 1st, 12:30 am SGT)  
  • Holidays: US out on Fri for 4th of Jul Wkd. CA & HK out on Wed 1st of Jul
  • US: ISM mfg, Construction Spending, Chicago PMI, NFP, U/R Jobless Claims, AHE, Factory Orders, ADP, Challenger Job cuts, Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Mins, Powell Testimony (Wed Jul 1st 12:30 am SGT)  
  • CH: Mfg. PMI 50.6p, Serv. PMI 53.6p, Caixin Mfg. PMI 50.7p, Caixin Serv. PMI 55.0p (recall that last month the Caixin readings surprised heavily to the upside)
  • EZ: Final PMIs, PPI, U/R, Flsh CPI
  • JP: Retails Sales, U/R, Tankan, Final Mfg. PMI, Monetary Base
  • UK: Final PMIs, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, BoE’s gov. Bailey speaking, Final 1Q GDP -2.0% e/p
  • AU: Private Sector Credit, AIG Mfg. Index, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales
  • NZ: ANZ Biz. Conf., Building Consents
  • CA: House Prices -13.4%p, Monthly GDP -7.2%p, Trade Balance, Mfg. PMI 40.6p

-

Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way

Have a brilliant day

 

Namaste,

KVP

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. Please ensure you consult our Risk Warning before you start trading and you understand the risks.

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved, we have put together a general Risk Warning and a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed here or within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.