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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.35% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
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Macro Macro Macro

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 27... Pivotal US 4th of July Wkd

Macro 2 minutes to read

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Week # 27... US 4th of July Weekend

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 27…
  • What kind of week are you trying to have?
  • Key aspect of this wk will be the 4th of Jul wkd upcoming in the US, which will see the US off this Fri (3rd Jul). This will be a one of a kind given Covid-19, the lockdown, protests, social unrest, the structural racial & class segregation issues in the US, plus of course the counting down to the elections.
  • Yet the pivotal month start NFP, Unemployment Rate & Claims will be coming through on Thu Jul 2nd. As if that was not enough, we will also be getting FOMC minutes late Wed US evening (Early Thu Asia Morning)  
  • Week obviously will capture the classic month end, start… yet that much more pivotal given that it’s the end of 2Q20 & start of 3Q20 – we could see a lot of focus on rebalancing on risk-parity real money players, passive indexers, as well as potential need for USD liquidity
  • It worth keeping in mind, end of last month has some whacky moves on the last day, which had some beautiful mean reversions once the new month kicked off.  
  • Economics: Final PMIs, US ISM mfg. & monthly core data such as NFP, AHE, U/R.  
  • Central Banks: No scheduled major central bank decisions on the calendar. Focus here will likely be Powell & Mnuchin testimony before the House (Wed Jul 1st, 12:30 am SGT)  
  • Holidays: US out on Fri for 4th of Jul Wkd. CA & HK out on Wed 1st of Jul
  • US: ISM mfg, Construction Spending, Chicago PMI, NFP, U/R Jobless Claims, AHE, Factory Orders, ADP, Challenger Job cuts, Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Mins, Powell Testimony (Wed Jul 1st 12:30 am SGT)  
  • CH: Mfg. PMI 50.6p, Serv. PMI 53.6p, Caixin Mfg. PMI 50.7p, Caixin Serv. PMI 55.0p (recall that last month the Caixin readings surprised heavily to the upside)
  • EZ: Final PMIs, PPI, U/R, Flsh CPI
  • JP: Retails Sales, U/R, Tankan, Final Mfg. PMI, Monetary Base
  • UK: Final PMIs, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, BoE’s gov. Bailey speaking, Final 1Q GDP -2.0% e/p
  • AU: Private Sector Credit, AIG Mfg. Index, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales
  • NZ: ANZ Biz. Conf., Building Consents
  • CA: House Prices -13.4%p, Monthly GDP -7.2%p, Trade Balance, Mfg. PMI 40.6p

-

Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way

Have a brilliant day

 

Namaste,

KVP

Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived

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    Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
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    As the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
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  • The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading it

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  • Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctions

    With supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
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  • Between a rock and a hard place

    Geopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
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  • The Great Erosion

    Inflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
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  • Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recession

    While global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
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  • Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with reality

    With the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
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