Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
-The Fed is likely to be a wash, with the press conference focused on tapering structure & whether it’s still a 2021 affair (hint it will be clearer for the Fed post knowing where we sit on the $3.5T infra bill).
-Norges bank should be up for what the RBNZ could not, set the bell-curve by being the first G10 CB to hike rates. KVP still loving the long NOKSEK 0.9952 +0.98% – the easy move is to 1.03/1.04. We were 1.05/6 lvls pre Covid & the thesis is simply NO > SW in hawkishness & inflation.
-Turkey as always has tail-risk to a cut, despite rampant inflation, Core readings came in better than expected. And some comments from the central bank governor (the 3rd in sub 3yrs & an Erdogan man), may suggest that they could be looking to ease in 4Q from the current 19.0%
-Brazil should continue their hiking regime to 6.38%e 5.25%p, as inflation is still rampant at +9.7% & elections are due next year.
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Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.
This is The Way
Namaste,
KVP
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