Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
-The Fed is likely to be a wash, with the press conference focused on tapering structure & whether it’s still a 2021 affair (hint it will be clearer for the Fed post knowing where we sit on the $3.5T infra bill).
-Norges bank should be up for what the RBNZ could not, set the bell-curve by being the first G10 CB to hike rates. KVP still loving the long NOKSEK 0.9952 +0.98% – the easy move is to 1.03/1.04. We were 1.05/6 lvls pre Covid & the thesis is simply NO > SW in hawkishness & inflation.
-Turkey as always has tail-risk to a cut, despite rampant inflation, Core readings came in better than expected. And some comments from the central bank governor (the 3rd in sub 3yrs & an Erdogan man), may suggest that they could be looking to ease in 4Q from the current 19.0%
-Brazil should continue their hiking regime to 6.38%e 5.25%p, as inflation is still rampant at +9.7% & elections are due next year.
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Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.
This is The Way
Namaste,
KVP