Macro Dragon: RBNZ blinks as it keeps rates on hold at 0.25%, following the nation-wide lock-down announced on Tue over one covid-case in NZ Macro Dragon: RBNZ blinks as it keeps rates on hold at 0.25%, following the nation-wide lock-down announced on Tue over one covid-case in NZ Macro Dragon: RBNZ blinks as it keeps rates on hold at 0.25%, following the nation-wide lock-down announced on Tue over one covid-case in NZ

Macro Dragon: RBNZ blinks as it keeps rates on hold at 0.25%, following the nation-wide lock-down announced on Tue over one covid-case in NZ

Forex 4 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon checks back in on the RBNZ rate decision to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%, which is a big difference from the hikes expectations from just earlier this wk - with the key caveat being the covid-case that has taken NZ to a country wide shutdown.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: RBNZ blinks as it keeps rates on hold at 0.25%, following the nation-wide lock-down announced on Tue over one covid-case in NZ

Top of Mind…

    • So KVP's view that the RBNZ was going to hike was wrong, looks like the RBNZ has blinked & folded on what was previously signaled as a potential series of hikes… which would have made them the first G10 central bank to hike on the other side of the Covid pandemic. So looks like that honor may have to fall on Norges Bank or perhaps the BoE or BoC.
    • The Covid-shuffle continues… remember.. “3 steps fwd, 2 steps, shuffle to the left, the shuffle to right…”
    • Its astounding to the Macro Dragon, that somehow the RBNZ was  expecting to never have to encounter a covid outbreak again, let alone lockdown… for a measly +25bp hike, yet pretty much clearly point out themselves that employment is running at a maximum sustainable lvl, house prices are up (talk to any kiwis about property prices let alone trying to get builders & handypersons), yet somehow they extrapolate on a lot of inflationary pressures being one-offs… hmmm…
    • This is likely another clear signal that NZ is massively behind where it needs to get to opening up its economy, ramping up its vaccine penetration (sub 20% for fully vaccinated) & learning that the hammer + dance strategy is not a long-term viable solution…
    • It may also be interpreted as the RBNZ know something else that the rest of the mkt does not, perhaps we have a longer lock down on the cards in NZ than planned... its looking like now we have 6 cases, but potentially also traces to social areas like pubs & clubs which intuitively may already have us in the 50 - 150 range once the tracing ins complete. 
    • The RBNZ press conference is being interpreted as a hawkish hold… which KVP has zero idea, of what that actually means. If you are hawkish your are hiking, if your dovish your cutting. If your bullish your long, if your bearish your short. 

      Kwi  18 1
    • Asia morning NZDUSD 0.6747 +0.40% looks set to try to grind up intraday… whilst AUDNZD 1.0459 -0.26% looks set to go back lower…

      Kwi  18 2

    • From the Macro Dragon side, currently its hard to get back on those bandwagons of being long kiwi… especially as next RBNZ is not until 6 Oct. And hard to see them raising in between meetings given just how behind the country is on modernizing its strategy to understanding that they have to live with Covid… the zero-policy response is pure fiction & stale.
    • This virus is going to be part of every country’s modern day life & annual vaccination run – one’s again big pharma wins.
    • Its worth noting we got the key Aussie jobs data on this Thu & the risk is to AU data & policy response overall surprising to the hawkish side vs. their NZ cousins. So far Australia's Sydney (23% of pop) has been in lock-down for close to 8wks & continues to struggle with a surge. Yet as we get towards year end we start to tick towards summer returning to the Southern Hemisphere (& winter in the Northern Hemisphere), which should help in curbing the Covid surge.  
    • Here is the link to the RBNZ statement


Dragon Interviews


Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is The Way



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.