Macro Dragon: Welcome to Week #21...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to Week #21
Top of Mind…
- Theme for this wk is flash PMIs, mins out of the Fed & RBA, same US / CH geopolitics, reopening vs. recovery, fiscal vs. monetary & likely looking for a structural break out of recent trading ranges across a number of assets.
- Holidays: CA out today, DK, FR & GER Thu Holidays, Worth noting long wkd up ahead in the US with Memorial day on Mon May 25 being a holiday.
- US: Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC mins, Philly Fed Mdg, Flash PMIs, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales…
- CH: CB Leading Index
- EZ: ZEW Economic Sentiment, Current Account, Final CPI, Consumer Confidence, Flash PMIs
- JP: Flash GDP, Tertiary Industry Activity, Core Machinery Orders, Trade Balance, Flash mfg. PMI, National Core CPI
- UK: CB Leading Index, Unemployment Rate, CPI, PPI, Flash PMIs, Retail Sales
- AU: RBA mins, CB Leading Index, MI Leading Index, Flash PMIs
- NZ: PPI, Milk Auction, Credit Card Spending, Retail Sales
- CA: CPI, Annual Budget release, ADP, Core Retail Sales, Corporate Profits
Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…
- May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks
- Macro Dragon: Checking-in on Bitcoin... Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones, is in Love, with Bitcoin & Gold...
- Make time for NOK & Norway folks, JJH touches on part of the implication on the fiscal measures announced last wk FX Update: NOK to break higher on massive stimulus?
- Ole checking in on wheat Another year of plenty awaits the grain market
- Creagh on Aus jobs report last week Hope trade fades
Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.
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