Macro Dragon: Welcome to Week #21...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to Week #21
Top of Mind…
- Theme for this wk is flash PMIs, mins out of the Fed & RBA, same US / CH geopolitics, reopening vs. recovery, fiscal vs. monetary & likely looking for a structural break out of recent trading ranges across a number of assets.
- Holidays: CA out today, DK, FR & GER Thu Holidays, Worth noting long wkd up ahead in the US with Memorial day on Mon May 25 being a holiday.
- US: Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC mins, Philly Fed Mdg, Flash PMIs, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales…
- CH: CB Leading Index
- EZ: ZEW Economic Sentiment, Current Account, Final CPI, Consumer Confidence, Flash PMIs
- JP: Flash GDP, Tertiary Industry Activity, Core Machinery Orders, Trade Balance, Flash mfg. PMI, National Core CPI
- UK: CB Leading Index, Unemployment Rate, CPI, PPI, Flash PMIs, Retail Sales
- AU: RBA mins, CB Leading Index, MI Leading Index, Flash PMIs
- NZ: PPI, Milk Auction, Credit Card Spending, Retail Sales
- CA: CPI, Annual Budget release, ADP, Core Retail Sales, Corporate Profits
Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…
- May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks
- Macro Dragon: Checking-in on Bitcoin... Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones, is in Love, with Bitcoin & Gold...
- Make time for NOK & Norway folks, JJH touches on part of the implication on the fiscal measures announced last wk FX Update: NOK to break higher on massive stimulus?
- Ole checking in on wheat Another year of plenty awaits the grain market
- Creagh on Aus jobs report last week Hope trade fades
Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.