Market Quick Take – 9 July 2025

Q3-2025 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Trump confirms copper tariff; EU rally continues; UK exporters shine
• Volatility: VIX eases to 16.8; SPX expected move ±0.44%; flat curve hints at calm
• Digital assets: Bitcoin steady; ETH gains; IBIT inflows continue; ETHA dips
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rise further ahead of 10-year auction
• Currencies: USD see modest gains against its G10 currency peers
• Commodities: HG copper surges to a near 30% premium over London
• Macro events: US 10-year Notes auction & FOMC minutes from June meeting

Macro data and headlines

• Trump caused turmoil across global copper markets after he stated he would impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, double the 25% consensus. A move that if implemented will inflict higher costs abroad a wide section of the US economy due the multiple industries and applications that rely on copper. He also threatened up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, with implementation delayed by 12 to 18 months.
• Trump also stressed he would not offer additional extensions on country-specific levies set to hit in early August, and that he would tag imports from India with an additional 10% levy for their participation in BRICS. In addition, he could unilaterally declare a new tariff rate on the European Union within the next two days due to frustration over the bloc's taxes and fines targeting US technology firms.
• In June 2025, US 1 year consumer inflation expectations dropped to 3%. Commodity price expectations rose for gas (4.2%), medical care (9.3%), college education (9.1%), and rent (9.1%).
• Taiwan's trade surplus rose to USD 12.07 billion from USD 4.70 billion. Exports reached USD 53.32 billion, led by information, communication, and audio-video products (82.5%) and electronic parts (31.1%). Exports grew to the US, ASEAN, Japan, and China & Hong Kong, but fell to Europe.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1430 – EIA Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
1700 – US to Sell USD 39 billion 10-year Notes
1800 – Fed June Meeting Minutes

Earnings events

Thursday: The Progressive Corporation, Fast Retailing, Cintas Corporation, Kongsberg, Delta Airlines

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Q3-2025 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

Equities

• US: US stocks were broadly flat Tuesday as conflicting tariff headlines kept traders on edge. Trump confirmed a 50% copper tariff and warned of steep levies on pharma imports, though with a one-year delay. The S&P 500 ended down 0.07%, while the Dow fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq eked out a 0.03% gain. Energy and materials stocks rallied on copper and oil gains, while consumer staples and financials lagged. Tesla rose 1.3%, while Amazon dipped 1.8% despite Prime Day kicking off. Focus now shifts to the Fed's meeting minutes due later today.
• Europe: European equities rose for a second day, buoyed by hopes of a US–EU trade deal. The STOXX 50 added 0.57%, and Germany’s DAX hit a one-month high (+0.55%), as officials work to lock in a 10% baseline tariff with sector exemptions. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.56%, helped by LVMH and Airbus, and stronger-than-expected PMI data. In the UK, the FTSE 100 rose 0.54%, led by Glencore (+2.85%) and BP (+3.2%) after fresh oil and copper deals. Ongoing trade negotiations and a weak pound kept exporters in demand.
• UK: The FTSE 100 gained 0.54% on Tuesday, with mining and energy stocks leading after BP signed a new Libya deal and Glencore advanced on a Philippines asset sale. Meanwhile, Bank of America’s upgrade lifted Entain nearly 3%. Markets welcomed Trump’s omission of the UK from the latest tariff letters, although concerns remain. Domestically, the OBR warned that national debt could surpass 270% of GDP by 2070 due to demographic costs, underscoring long-term fiscal risks.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed as copper tariff headlines clashed with encouraging inflation data in China. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.27% after Tuesday’s rally, while Japan’s Nikkei hovered near flat. Chinese equities rose modestly despite worsening factory deflation, supported by optimism around Beijing–Washington trade talks. The Shanghai Composite added 0.3%, and the CSI300 rose 0.32%. In South Korea, the KOSPI gained 0.57%. Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.56% after the RBA held rates steady, surprising markets.

Volatility

• Volatility declined for a second day, signaling investor calm despite looming tariff deadlines. The VIX dropped to 16.81 (-5.5%), while short-term gauges VIX1D and VIX9D fell sharply to 10.53 and 13.90. The VIX futures curve remains flat, with July near 17.8, indicating limited expectations of a fresh spike. Implied daily moves on the S&P are down to ±27.5 points (0.44%). While downside hedging has cooled, volatility may reawaken as earnings season approaches and macro uncertainty persists.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin held steady near $108.8k (-0.1%), and Ethereum climbed to $2,629 (+0.54%), as digital assets remained resilient. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF rose 0.68% amid steady inflows, now holding over 700k BTC. Ethereum’s ETHA ETF fell 2.7% despite being the top gainer year-to-date among ETH products. Broader altcoins were firm: XRP +1%, SOL +0.74%, DOGE +1.8%. Ethereum drew fresh attention as Electric Capital called it the “financial backbone” of the digital dollar economy, citing its role in stablecoins and DeFi infrastructure. Metaplanet plans to use BTC reserves to acquire a digital bank, underscoring institutional crypto traction.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries fell further on Tuesday with the 10-year yield rising for a fifth day, and above 4.4% for the first time in three weeks as demand for long-term government debt across the globe faded amid a flurry of bond auctions this week, and renewed inflation concerns related to Trumps aggressive stance on tariffs. Focus on today’s USD 39 billion 10-year Note auction.
• Overnight in Australia, the 10-year benchmark yield rose 9 bps to 4.35%, a five-week high while long-end JGB’s held steady at 1.49%

Commodities

• Copper futures traded in New York surged after Trump said he was focusing on a 50% tariff on imports, starting in early August, as opposed to the 25% expected by the market. The US imports more than 50% due to a lack of domestic production and refining capacity. Improving that situation will take years—if not decades—and in the meantime, a base metal critical to thousands of manufacturing and infrastructure applications will cost significantly more in the US. Following months of rapid transfers of copper to the US ahead of tariffs, a nation that consumes around 7% of global production now has bigger CME-monitored stockpiles than London and Shanghai combined—likely reducing shipments in the short term. Hence, the drop in London while New York surged, lifting its premium to around 29% as existing stocks can be used up first, meaning the full 50% tariff is unlikely to be reflected immediately.
• Gold trades back below USD 3,300 but remains stuck in a range, with support around USD 3,245 and resistance at USD 3,360. In a rapidly thinning market ahead of the holiday season, traders will be watching US tariff developments, FOMC minutes, and a number of key bond auctions, which—together with tariff-related inflation concerns—have resulted in rising yields in recent days.

Currencies

• USD experienced modest gains with varied performance against its G10 currency peers. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose to near 98 level on tariff jitters as market participants looked forward to today’s release of FOMC Minutes.
• AUD held gains above 0.6540 after the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates at 3.85%, defying expectations of a cut. The RBA's statement showed a balanced view on inflation, indicating that they could wait for more data. Governor Bullock expressed confidence in the potential for further easing.
• JPY weakened past 147 against USD as US tariffs on Japanese goods dampened sentiment. Ahead of the July 20th elections, Japanese officials, led by Prime Minister Ishiba, vowed to defend national interests despite Trump's threats of retaliation.