Quarterly Outlook
Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
For 33 years, Nvidia and Jensen Huang were almost inseparable. The black leather jacket became as recognisable as the company's green logo, while Huang transformed a graphics chip business into one of the world's most important companies.
On 12 November 2026, Nvidia confirmed Huang's resignation as chief executive. Long-serving finance chief Colette Kress takes over on an interim basis while the board searches for a permanent successor. After a turbulent trading session in which they fell as much as 12%, Nvidia shares recovered some ground to close at 166.19 USD, down 4.3%.
With earnings due on 17 November, investors face a question that goes beyond artificial intelligence: what happens when an extraordinary business loses the person who made it extraordinary?
Some of the world's greatest businesses share a common ingredient: a founder willing to think further ahead than everyone else.
Huang believed powerful graphics chips could eventually do far more than make video games look better. Nvidia invested heavily in software and computing technology long before AI became a commercial opportunity.
Founder-led companies can benefit from patient leadership, deep industry knowledge and a willingness to sacrifice short-term profits for long-term growth.
But there is another side to the story. A founder with an exceptional track record may become difficult to challenge. Decision-making can become concentrated, and the organisation may struggle to imagine a future without them.
The very qualities that make a founder valuable can make their departure particularly difficult.
Nvidia's competitive advantages do not simply disappear with its chief executive.
The company sells much more than chips. Its CUDA software platform helps developers use Nvidia's processors to build AI applications. Years of investment in software, engineering expertise and developer relationships make switching to competing platforms difficult.
Think of it as a professional kitchen. Replacing an oven is relatively easy. Replacing every appliance, rewriting the recipes and retraining the staff is a different matter.
Nvidia also retains experienced engineers, established customer relationships and a vast supplier network. Kress, its finance chief since 2013, offers valuable continuity.
The harder question is whether Nvidia can keep making the decisions that created those advantages. Can it continue investing ahead of demand, introducing better products at remarkable speed and identifying tomorrow's opportunities?
In technology, today's competitive advantage rarely protects tomorrow's profits without further innovation.
History offers reasons for optimism.
When Steve Jobs stepped down in 2011, many questioned Apple's future. Tim Cook brought different strengths, expanding its ecosystem and services business while turning Apple into an even more powerful cash-generating machine.
Microsoft offers another lesson. Satya Nadella succeeded Steve Ballmer in 2014 and accelerated Microsoft's shift towards cloud computing. Rather than simply protecting its existing software business, he positioned it for the next technological era.
At Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's handover to Greg Abel at the beginning of 2026 illustrates the importance of preparing a successor well in advance.
The best successor is not necessarily the person most similar to the previous leader. Sometimes a company's next chapter requires a different set of skills.
Nvidia faces a more abrupt transition, just as major customers including Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft develop their own chips.
Leadership uncertainty could affect employee retention, customer relationships and long-term investment decisions. The board must also demonstrate effective oversight without undermining Nvidia's entrepreneurial culture.
Valuation matters, too. If investors previously paid a premium for Huang's leadership, how much remains justified? A falling share price does not automatically make a company cheaper if its long-term prospects have changed.
For three decades, Jensen Huang helped Nvidia see opportunities that others missed. His departure does not erase that achievement, nor the technology, people and customer relationships he leaves behind.
But it changes the investment question.
Can Nvidia reproduce its extraordinary success without the individual who shaped its culture and strategy? The answer matters far beyond one chipmaker. Every investor in a founder-led company will eventually face a similar question.
Great leaders can build extraordinary businesses. Perhaps their greatest achievement is building one that no longer needs them.
The leather jacket may no longer be on stage. What matters now is whether the ambition behind it remains embedded in the business.