Macro Dragon: Welcome to Week #21...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to Week #21
Top of Mind…
- Theme for this wk is flash PMIs, mins out of the Fed & RBA, same US / CH geopolitics, reopening vs. recovery, fiscal vs. monetary & likely looking for a structural break out of recent trading ranges across a number of assets.
- Holidays: CA out today, DK, FR & GER Thu Holidays, Worth noting long wkd up ahead in the US with Memorial day on Mon May 25 being a holiday.
- US: Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC mins, Philly Fed Mdg, Flash PMIs, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales…
- CH: CB Leading Index
- EZ: ZEW Economic Sentiment, Current Account, Final CPI, Consumer Confidence, Flash PMIs
- JP: Flash GDP, Tertiary Industry Activity, Core Machinery Orders, Trade Balance, Flash mfg. PMI, National Core CPI
- UK: CB Leading Index, Unemployment Rate, CPI, PPI, Flash PMIs, Retail Sales
- AU: RBA mins, CB Leading Index, MI Leading Index, Flash PMIs
- NZ: PPI, Milk Auction, Credit Card Spending, Retail Sales
- CA: CPI, Annual Budget release, ADP, Core Retail Sales, Corporate Profits
Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…
- May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks
- Macro Dragon: Checking-in on Bitcoin... Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones, is in Love, with Bitcoin & Gold...
- Make time for NOK & Norway folks, JJH touches on part of the implication on the fiscal measures announced last wk FX Update: NOK to break higher on massive stimulus?
- Ole checking in on wheat Another year of plenty awaits the grain market
- Creagh on Aus jobs report last week Hope trade fades
Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.