Market Quick Take – Copper nears a record as soft US spending and Middle East flare-ups open the week – 17 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: US spending and sentiment both undershot, softening the growth picture into a quiet data week
• Equities: US and Europe slipped Friday, Asia was mixed Monday, with Hong Kong stronger and South Korea closed.
• Volatility: Near-term protection sank to multi-month lows while longer-dated volatility declined to follow
• Digital Assets: Majors steadied over the weekend after an index-inclusion threat knocked the treasury proxies
• Commodities: Copper pressed record territory on supply strain while crude kept its geopolitical bid
• Fixed Income: Yields eased across the curve on soft producer prices and an orderly bond auction
• Currencies: Extremely rangebound market in G3 majors as markets look around for a catalyst.

Macro

• The US consumer softened on two separate readings. July retail sales fell 0.6% on the month against consensus for a 0.1% rise, the first decline since October 2025, and the core control group used for GDP fell 0.4%, its largest drop since early 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 51 in early August from 55.2, below expectations, with broad-based declines and year-ahead inflation expectations a touch higher at 4.3%.
• The US-Iran ceasefire expires today, following an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon and with fresh US sanctions on Iran expected. Speaking at a rally on Friday, President Trump called Iran "very evil" and told Americans to expect sustained high fuel prices, arguing the cost of the conflict was justified to keep Iran from a nuclear weapon.
• Japan's Q2 GDP grew 0.3% quarter on quarter, slowing from the first quarter and missing the 0.5% consensus, against a long-run average of 0.42% since 1980. In China, July M2 money supply growth came in at 7.7% year on year against 7.9% expected.
• The week is data-light until Friday. The FOMC minutes land on Wednesday alongside a USD 16 billion 20-year auction, and global flash PMIs arrive on Friday with Japanese national CPI. Those minutes are the main lead-in to Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on 27 to 29 August. July's FOMC left rates at 3.50% to 3.75% with three dissents in favour of a hike.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0700 – China July Retail Sales, Home Prices, Industrial Production & Fixed Assets Investments
• 1230 – US August Empire Manufacturing

Earnings events

Friday: Aviva, ASICS

Earnings highlights for next week:

• Tuesday: Home Depot, BHP Group, Keysight Technologies, Coloplast, Klarna, Carlsberg
• Wednesday: Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s Companies, Target, Estee Lauder, Geberit, Carlsberg
• Thursday: Walmart, Deere & Co, AIA Group, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,785.76 on Friday, the Dow fell 0.2% to 53,732.41 and the Nasdaq 100 eased 0.1% to 30,046.14 as weak retail sales and softer consumer sentiment raised growth concerns, while higher oil added inflation pressure. Applied Materials dropped 5.1% despite an upbeat outlook, while Reddit jumped 12.6% after being selected to join the S&P 500 and Chevron gained 1.2% alongside oil. Nvidia edged 0.1% lower; separately, its filing disclosed stakes worth about $21 billion in SpaceX and $30 billion in Intel.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.2% on Friday and the FTSE 100 lost 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, as higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions offset support from a strong earnings season. Rheinmetall rose 3.2% as defence stocks strengthened, while SAP gained 2.7% and Nemetschek jumped 8.4% after reports of Silver Lake’s interest in Workday revived interest in European software. Aviva added 1.8% after first-half operating profit beat expectations, supported by Direct Line and wealth-management growth.
• Asia: Asian equities were mixed on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up around 0.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining about 1.5%, while Singapore’s STI traded lower. South Korea’s market was closed for the observed Liberation Day holiday. Japan remained supported by artificial-intelligence demand despite softer-than-expected domestic growth, while MS&AD Insurance advanced after quarterly net income rose 33.4% year on year to ¥328.6 billion. Hong Kong rebounded after four consecutive declines, while investors continued to watch elevated oil prices and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz disruption as the main regional macro risk.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

• Soft US retail sales and sentiment closed the week without disturbing the vol floor. VIX ended Friday at 14.25, its lowest since 29 December, with VIX1D at 9.18 and VIX9D at 10.61.
• The curve is unusually steep, 14.25 cash against 18.46 at three months and 22.75 at one year, with the front future at 17.95 in overnight trade. SKEW rose to 138.36 as VVIX eased, and oil vol at 49.52 remains about 3.5 times equity vol. SPX options imply 0.94% into Friday; today's expiry was not yet quoting at the snapshot.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

• Majors firmed over the weekend after bitcoin slipped below 63,000 on Friday, and DVOL eased to 34.86. The listed proxies wore Friday's move: Strategy fell 4.18%, Circle 5.01% and Coinbase 3.53%, while miners split, Cipher up 7.43% against Iren down 1.56%.
• MSCI has proposed screening non-operating companies out of its global indices, a change its own testing showed would exclude Strategy and Metaplanet. Feedback closes 30 September, with final methodology due 16 October and the index review on 11 November. Strategy publicly rejected the proposal on Friday.

Commodities

• Oil: Crude trades steady, holding onto its geopolitical bid, with Brent near the top of its recent range near USD 89 as fresh fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz cloud the outlook for a deal to end the US-Iran war. Meanwhile, and despite the attacks, Middle Eastern producers continue to shuttle large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf, with daily flows reportedly running above market estimates of around 4 million barrels, helping to keep prices in check.
• Industrial metals: Copper rose towards a record in London, trading up 1.45% at USD 14,365 per ton in early trading. A combination of major producers struggling to meet production targets and intense competition for supply between the US and China has driven the premium for spot delivery in London over three-month metal to nearly USD 500 per ton, highlighting acute nearby tightness. HG copper in New York trades back above USD 6.70 after last week's correction towards USD 6.50 was met with fresh buying.
• Precious metals: Gold holds near USD 4,400 after a week of weak US economic data and a softer dollar provided support, despite long-end bond yields trading near cycle highs, not least the 10-year real yield. The resilience highlights a market where demand from less interest-rate-sensitive investors has returned amid mounting fiscal and debt concerns. The dynamic is reminiscent of 2022–23, when gold held its ground amid strong central-bank buying despite aggressive rate hikes and rising bond yields. For now, bullion remains stuck in a wide USD 4,200 to USD 4,505 range, with the upper level representing the important 200-day moving average.
• The latest COT report covering the week to 11 August showed hedge funds extending their commodity futures buying spree into a fifth week, lifting the combined net long across 24 major futures by 173% in less than two months. Energy led the buying amid renewed Middle East concerns, while gold length reached an 11-month high and copper a 5½-year high. In agriculture, massive sugar short covering flipped the position to a net long for the first time in 14 months, while cotton length reached a 28-month high.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries yields rallied Thursday after the soft PPI data (see above) and slight rise in the weekly initial jobless claims. The front-end of the US treasury yield curve came in sharply lower, down about five basis points and eyeing the lows for the last four weeks near 4.15%. At the longer end of the curve, the 10-year yield also fell about five basis points to 4.65%, but still traded within the recent range. A 30-year T-bond auction saw steady demand with yields near 20-year highs.
• European government bonds rallied in sympathy with US treasury counterparts Thursday, with the strongest move lower in yields in the five-year BOBL in Germany, where the benchmark fell more than five basis points at one point intraday to below 2.85% before rebounding back toward 2.87%. The benchmark 10-year German Bund yield also dropped back, trading 3.13% late Thursday after shying away from the 3.20%+ yield area earlier this week for the third time in recent weeks and for a fourth time since mid-May.

Currencies

• Currency volatility in the major is extremely constrained as traders lack conviction. This could be a tactical reluctance to send USDJPY toward 160.00 in fear of official intervention from Japan, or as the market awaits more conviction on the direction of Fed policy or rates volatility on incoming macro data. In any case, EURUSD is lost in one of its tightest two-week ranges in a long time between 1.1500 and 1.1580.
• EURCHF pulled to a new cycle high above 0.9390 Thursday, another new high for 2026 highs, with 16-month highs just north of 0.9450 the next major chart point above 0.9400.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis