Market Quick Take – 23 June 2026

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Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US tech dragged Wall Street lower, Europe gained on peace hopes, while Asia cooled after Monday’s AI-led records.
• Volatility: PCE inflation, Micron earnings, AI valuation concerns, downside hedging demand, VIX edges higher
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin consolidates, ETF outflows slowing, crypto equities outperform
• Commodities: Gold and crude trade softer while grains see another week of aggressive long liquidation
• Fixed Income: US treasuries rally slightly early Tuesday Monday’s cycle high close for the US 2-year benchmark.
• Currencies: USD remains firm near cycle highs. AUD and NZD slip early Tuesday.
• Macro: Eurozone Flash June PMI, US Treasury to auction 2-year notes, Australia May CPI

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Macro

• The Pentagon told lawmakers it may need $80 billion in emergency funding for the war, though the White House has yet to submit a formal request to Congress.
• Australia’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in June from 50.7, its third month of expansion, supported by modest job gains. Output and new orders still slipped slightly, delivery times lengthened, and input/output prices rose on higher fuel and transport costs, though inflation eased. Business sentiment strengthened on expansion plans and expectations of better future orders.
• Canada’s headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May 2026 from 2.8%, the fastest since December 2023 and above the 3% forecast, driven by surging gasoline and energy prices and higher food costs. BoC core measures stayed steady (trimmed 2%, median 2.1%). Inflation eased for shelter and health/personal care, while household operations prices fell. CPI rose 1% month-on-month.
• Euro Area consumer confidence rose to -17.7 in June from -19 in May, missing the -17.5 forecast. EU confidence also improved, to -17 from -18.2. Easing oil prices helped, but sentiment remains below long-term and pre-conflict levels amid ongoing economic and purchasing power concerns.
• Markets reacted to PM Keir Starmer’s resignation, which opens the way for Andy Burnham—fresh from a by-election win and backed by Wes Streeting—to seek the premiership. Investors are watching for clarity on Burnham’s fiscal plans, amid concern that higher spending and gilt issuance could further strain the UK’s fragile public finances and high debt.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0715 – France Jun. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 0730 – Germany Jun. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 0800 – Eurozone Jun. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 0830 – UK Jun. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change
• 1230 – US Jun. Philadelphia Fed Non-manufacturing survey
• 1300 – Canada Bank of Canada Governor Macklem to speak
• 1345 – US Jun. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 1400 – US Jun. Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey
• 1700 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes
• 0130 – Australia May CPI

Earnings events

• Tuesday: FedEx, Carnival Corporation
• Wednesday: Micron
• Thursday: H&M Hennes & Mauritz, Darden Restaurants

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

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Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,472.79 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3% to 26,166.60, while the Dow rose 0.3% to 51,712.71 as investors rotated away from megacap technology. Alphabet fell 5.0% after senior AI leadership exits raised questions over its competitive position, Amazon lost 4.8% as AI spending worries hit large cloud platforms, and SpaceX dropped 16.4% after announcing its first investment-grade bond sale. Financials rose 0.5%, while markets now watched US inflation data and Micron earnings.
• Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%, the DAX gained 0.6% to 25,139.69, the FTSE 100 advanced 0.7% to 10,437.85 and the SMI added 0.5%, as progress in US-Iran talks lifted sentiment and pushed oil lower. Infineon climbed 4.8% and Soitec surged 9.2% as chip shares regained momentum, while Hermès fell almost 6% after analysts warned of margin pressure in first-half results. Defence lagged, with Babcock down 5.9% after project-related profit pressure and Leonardo off 3.7% on softer demand for the sector.
• Asia: Asian equities pulled back on Tuesday after Monday’s record-setting AI rally, with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index down 0.5%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 0.6%, and South Korea’s Kospi losing 2.0% as investors took profits in crowded technology winners. SoftBank Group fell 5.8% after its sharp AI-led run, while SK Hynix lost 2.0% and Samsung Electronics dropped 2.7% as chip shares cooled after SK Hynix had overtaken Samsung as South Korea’s most valuable listed company on Monday. Taiwan gained 0.9% to a fresh high, showing the AI trade was dented, not dead.

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Volatility

• Market volatility remains relatively contained, but investors are showing signs of caution after a modest pullback in US equities. The VIX rose to 17.28 on Monday while the S&P 500 fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.19%, as higher bond yields, lingering uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations and questions about stretched AI-related valuations weighed on sentiment. The main event this week is Thursday's PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which could influence expectations for interest rates in the second half of the year.
• Investors will also be watching Micron's earnings on Wednesday for another test of AI-related spending demand.
• Based on SPX options pricing, the market is currently implying a weekly expected move of roughly 95 points, or 1.26%, suggesting a range of approximately 7,389 to 7,578 around the current 7,484 level. Friday's options expiry continues to show moderate downside skew, with puts trading at richer levels than comparable calls, indicating that investors remain more willing to pay for downside protection than for upside exposure.

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Digital Assets

• Digital assets remain under pressure as higher-rate expectations, a firmer U.S. dollar and continued ETF outflows weigh on risk appetite. Bitcoin traded around $63,300 while Ethereum hovered near $1,710, with XRP and Solana also posting modest declines. However, the pace of ETF outflows has slowed compared with earlier in June, helping Bitcoin stabilise despite six consecutive weeks of net withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
• Crypto-related equities painted a more constructive picture, with IBIT gaining 2.47%, ETHA rising 1.40%, COIN advancing 0.97% and MARA adding 4.43%, suggesting investors remain selective rather than broadly bearish on the sector. Strategy also continued to accumulate Bitcoin, adding another 520 coins during the week.
• For now, the crypto market appears to be consolidating rather than starting a new uptrend, with ETF flows, Fed expectations and geopolitical developments likely to remain the key drivers.

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Commodities

• Gold’s rebound proved short-lived, with prices turning lower towards USD 4,100 as traders and investors continue to adjust to the risk of higher funding costs amid the Fed’s focus on inflation and price stability. A firm dollar and bond yields, and weakness in technology stocks have all contributed to the softer tone, prompting major investment banks to lower their 2026 forecasts. Deutsche Bank recently cut its Q4 target to USD 4,800, following Goldman Sachs' reduction to USD 4,900. For now, the USD 4,000–4,100 support zone remains critical, with a break potentially triggering a fresh wave of capitulation and technical selling.
• Relative silver’s weakness has pushed the gold-silver ratio to a near three-month high around 65.8, with XAGUSD currently on track for its weakest close since December, below USD 63.
• Brent crude trades near USD 77.50 and is lower for a second day as US-Iran talks continue. Additional pressure followed the US decision to issue a 60-day sanctions waiver, allowing limited sales of Iranian crude and refined products. The move should facilitate the export of some of the estimated 30 million barrels that left Iranian ports last week. Meanwhile, shipping data showed millions of barrels of crude and fuel products transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, reinforcing expectations of improving regional supply flows.
• The grains sector has seen a dramatic positioning reset over the past six weeks. During that period, the BCOM Grains Index fell 7.5%, while the combined net long across the six major US grain and soy futures contracts collapsed by 90% from a record 874k contracts to a four-month low. Corn has borne the brunt of the liquidation, with speculators swinging from a net long of 344k contracts to a net short of 46k contracts in the latest reporting week.
• CBOT wheat futures fell on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and improving crop prospects across the Black Sea region. An advancing US harvest and favourable production outlooks in Russia and Ukraine continue to outweigh concerns about drought damage to the US hard red winter wheat crop.

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Fixed Income

• US Treasury traders pressed the pause button Monday after the gap higher in yields to start the week, with treasuries rallying modestly in early Tuesday hours on a shift to the negative in risk sentiment in the Asian trading session. The benchmark two-year treasury yield closed at a cycle high of 4.226%, up five basis points versus last Thursday’s close (Friday saw no trading on a market holiday) but the intraday range was very compressed. The yield was about two basis points lower in overnight trading early Tuesday, below 4.21%, with the US Treasury set to auction 2-year notes later in the day. The benchmark 10-year yield saw similar action, easing just below 4.50% early Tuesday after a five-basis point advance on Monday.
• European bonds rallied Monday, with the benchmark German 2-year Schatz yield dipping more than four basis points to 2.60%, while the benchmark 10-year German Bund yield eased back over three basis points to 2.95%. Later Tuesday morning, France, Germany and the Eurozone will report their preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI for June, with oil prices now.

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Currencies

• The US dollar continues to trade near the cycle highs, though failed to punch through the next key levels of interest in subdued trading Monday and early Tuesday, as EURUSD trades near 1.1425 and eyes the key range support, the March low of 1.1411, while USDJPY trades near 161.60 and eyes the post-1980’s high of 161.95, the high from July of 2024.
• The Australian and New Zealand dollars traded weakly early Tuesday, with AUDUSD slipping to local lows below 0.6975 for the first time since April, most likely more due to soft risk sentiment, the stronger US dollar and weak metal prices rather than the slightly improved, but still indifferent Australia flash June Manufacturing and Services PMI survey results Tuesday. Australia reports its May CPI data early Wednesday as the country’s two-year yields have slipped to local lows since March (contrast with US yields at cycle highs).
• EURSEK slipped above 11.00 in early trading Tuesday. While the exchange rate has tested that level four times previously this year, it has not closed above the round figure since November of last year.