2106chinaM

Macro Dragon: Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Strats-Kay-88x88
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Daily Cross Asset Views. Today we touch on the super smart move of Tesla to announce a +$2bn capital raise through issuing stock, post hitting all-time highs last wk, being up +92% YTD & +350% since mid 2019.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

2020-Feb-14

 

Macro Dragon: Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer

 

Maverick Game Changer…

  • Say what you want to say about Elon & Tesla, but the future of history books are likely to eventually leave in the shadows such standout figures such as Gates, Jobs, Ma, Disney, Rockefeller – not because their contributions were not massive, critical & disruptive, they were/are… but just because of the brilliant light beaming from the Super Nova that is Elon Musk.
  • Seriously they should start putting him in all the James Bond movies going forward, with the same last name, first & last name tag line. Musk. Elon Musk. We’ll not even touch on PayPal, Space-X or a host of his other “side projects” (which are basically other teams/companies entire “life projects”)… let’s just check in on Tesla.
  • The stock closed o/n at 804, its up +92% YTD – continuing in the process to fill football field sized graveyards of Tesla shorts – having recently made ATH last wk of 968.98. Tesla announced that they are going to do a +$2bn capital raise through a share offering at a strike of  $767 a share, which is a c. -5% discount from yest close of 804.
  • This is smart of Elon & Tesla’s Management – this is what rational companies are supposed to do on the highs of the longest business cycle in recorded in modern history. You issue stock because its expensive. You issue stock because your up +350% since the summer of 2019 & your still a growth company that has high CAPEX needs.
  • What you don’t do is, is what the majority of the companies such as Boeing are doing – go out borrow money to buy back shares, that lead to management hitting their stock option targets, then let you grossly negligent CEO leave with $60m, which is +$10m more than what your offering for compensation to the families of the Boeing MAX Jet Planes that crashed. All due to a software update error that was linked to internal incompetent systems that once again maximized near-term profitability over something as priceless as one’s brand & reputation. Few people think about 2nd, let alone 3rd order consequences… KVP thinks about them a lot & that still not enough.
  • Back to Elon – can you imagine him across from Idris at casino poker table of the next James Bond  – I am not sure whether or not he gets us to Mars… but if anyone could do it… its likely to be a multi-billionaire maverick who has a work-ethic that defies anything else that we’ve come across on the Macro Dragon. How many multi-billionaires on their 3rd legacy gig, do you know who sleep on their factory floor? Have you ever worked a +100hr wk? Its not rainbow & unicorns KVP can tell you that.
  • The bulls on Tesla, contend it’s a renewable energy company that is disrupting the stored energy space & is light years ahead of the competition (giga-factory in China, etc), whilst the bears (TSLAQ crowd) will argue its an overvalued badly run automobile company with an Ipad stuck onto a plastic frame  & a volatile CEO at the helm.
  • Here is an interesting piece from the Macro Tourist who has gone short Tesla with a stop along the recent 960ish highs. Whilst KVP has no dog in this fight, any short expressions would be tactical long puts (i.e. vol is historically low across asset classes), unless one has the capacity to do intraday trades. With ESG & Social Impact investing being a key theme that will not go away – alongside very few pure plays out there – its hard to envisage a world where Tesla goes to zero, could it go to $1000 or double again to $1600? Absolutely, especially if the equity melt-up continues.

 

On The Radar Today:

(Times would be SGT)

  • NZ: Biz Mfg. Index 49.6a 49.2
  • JP: Tertiary Industry Activity
  • EZ: GER Flash GDP +0.2%e +1.0%p, EZ Flash GDP 1.0%e/p & Jobs data, TB
  • US: Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Bix. Inv., FOMC’s Mester @ 00:45

 

-

Have a fantastic wkd ahead everyone, stay healthy as well as keep your mind open to profitable & abundant opportunities. Life happens for us. 

Namaste,

-KVP

 

-

Some Anchor Pieces from #SaxoStrats:

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992