Macro Dragon:  Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer... Macro Dragon:  Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer... Macro Dragon:  Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer...

Macro Dragon: Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Daily Cross Asset Views. Today we touch on the super smart move of Tesla to announce a +$2bn capital raise through issuing stock, post hitting all-time highs last wk, being up +92% YTD & +350% since mid 2019.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

2020-Feb-14

 

Macro Dragon: Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer

 

Maverick Game Changer…

  • Say what you want to say about Elon & Tesla, but the future of history books are likely to eventually leave in the shadows such standout figures such as Gates, Jobs, Ma, Disney, Rockefeller – not because their contributions were not massive, critical & disruptive, they were/are… but just because of the brilliant light beaming from the Super Nova that is Elon Musk.
  • Seriously they should start putting him in all the James Bond movies going forward, with the same last name, first & last name tag line. Musk. Elon Musk. We’ll not even touch on PayPal, Space-X or a host of his other “side projects” (which are basically other teams/companies entire “life projects”)… let’s just check in on Tesla.
  • The stock closed o/n at 804, its up +92% YTD – continuing in the process to fill football field sized graveyards of Tesla shorts – having recently made ATH last wk of 968.98. Tesla announced that they are going to do a +$2bn capital raise through a share offering at a strike of  $767 a share, which is a c. -5% discount from yest close of 804.
  • This is smart of Elon & Tesla’s Management – this is what rational companies are supposed to do on the highs of the longest business cycle in recorded in modern history. You issue stock because its expensive. You issue stock because your up +350% since the summer of 2019 & your still a growth company that has high CAPEX needs.
  • What you don’t do is, is what the majority of the companies such as Boeing are doing – go out borrow money to buy back shares, that lead to management hitting their stock option targets, then let you grossly negligent CEO leave with $60m, which is +$10m more than what your offering for compensation to the families of the Boeing MAX Jet Planes that crashed. All due to a software update error that was linked to internal incompetent systems that once again maximized near-term profitability over something as priceless as one’s brand & reputation. Few people think about 2nd, let alone 3rd order consequences… KVP thinks about them a lot & that still not enough.
  • Back to Elon – can you imagine him across from Idris at casino poker table of the next James Bond  – I am not sure whether or not he gets us to Mars… but if anyone could do it… its likely to be a multi-billionaire maverick who has a work-ethic that defies anything else that we’ve come across on the Macro Dragon. How many multi-billionaires on their 3rd legacy gig, do you know who sleep on their factory floor? Have you ever worked a +100hr wk? Its not rainbow & unicorns KVP can tell you that.
  • The bulls on Tesla, contend it’s a renewable energy company that is disrupting the stored energy space & is light years ahead of the competition (giga-factory in China, etc), whilst the bears (TSLAQ crowd) will argue its an overvalued badly run automobile company with an Ipad stuck onto a plastic frame  & a volatile CEO at the helm.
  • Here is an interesting piece from the Macro Tourist who has gone short Tesla with a stop along the recent 960ish highs. Whilst KVP has no dog in this fight, any short expressions would be tactical long puts (i.e. vol is historically low across asset classes), unless one has the capacity to do intraday trades. With ESG & Social Impact investing being a key theme that will not go away – alongside very few pure plays out there – its hard to envisage a world where Tesla goes to zero, could it go to $1000 or double again to $1600? Absolutely, especially if the equity melt-up continues.

 

On The Radar Today:

(Times would be SGT)

  • NZ: Biz Mfg. Index 49.6a 49.2
  • JP: Tertiary Industry Activity
  • EZ: GER Flash GDP +0.2%e +1.0%p, EZ Flash GDP 1.0%e/p & Jobs data, TB
  • US: Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Bix. Inv., FOMC’s Mester @ 00:45

 

-

Have a fantastic wkd ahead everyone, stay healthy as well as keep your mind open to profitable & abundant opportunities. Life happens for us. 

Namaste,

-KVP

 

-

Some Anchor Pieces from #SaxoStrats:

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.