Macro Dragon: Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Daily Cross Asset Views. Today we touch on the super smart move of Tesla to announce a +$2bn capital raise through issuing stock, post hitting all-time highs last wk, being up +92% YTD & +350% since mid 2019.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

2020-Feb-14

 

Macro Dragon: Musk, Elon Musk - Entrepreneur Extraordinaire + Maverick Game Changer

 

Maverick Game Changer…

  • Say what you want to say about Elon & Tesla, but the future of history books are likely to eventually leave in the shadows such standout figures such as Gates, Jobs, Ma, Disney, Rockefeller – not because their contributions were not massive, critical & disruptive, they were/are… but just because of the brilliant light beaming from the Super Nova that is Elon Musk.
  • Seriously they should start putting him in all the James Bond movies going forward, with the same last name, first & last name tag line. Musk. Elon Musk. We’ll not even touch on PayPal, Space-X or a host of his other “side projects” (which are basically other teams/companies entire “life projects”)… let’s just check in on Tesla.
  • The stock closed o/n at 804, its up +92% YTD – continuing in the process to fill football field sized graveyards of Tesla shorts – having recently made ATH last wk of 968.98. Tesla announced that they are going to do a +$2bn capital raise through a share offering at a strike of  $767 a share, which is a c. -5% discount from yest close of 804.
  • This is smart of Elon & Tesla’s Management – this is what rational companies are supposed to do on the highs of the longest business cycle in recorded in modern history. You issue stock because its expensive. You issue stock because your up +350% since the summer of 2019 & your still a growth company that has high CAPEX needs.
  • What you don’t do is, is what the majority of the companies such as Boeing are doing – go out borrow money to buy back shares, that lead to management hitting their stock option targets, then let you grossly negligent CEO leave with $60m, which is +$10m more than what your offering for compensation to the families of the Boeing MAX Jet Planes that crashed. All due to a software update error that was linked to internal incompetent systems that once again maximized near-term profitability over something as priceless as one’s brand & reputation. Few people think about 2nd, let alone 3rd order consequences… KVP thinks about them a lot & that still not enough.
  • Back to Elon – can you imagine him across from Idris at casino poker table of the next James Bond  – I am not sure whether or not he gets us to Mars… but if anyone could do it… its likely to be a multi-billionaire maverick who has a work-ethic that defies anything else that we’ve come across on the Macro Dragon. How many multi-billionaires on their 3rd legacy gig, do you know who sleep on their factory floor? Have you ever worked a +100hr wk? Its not rainbow & unicorns KVP can tell you that.
  • The bulls on Tesla, contend it’s a renewable energy company that is disrupting the stored energy space & is light years ahead of the competition (giga-factory in China, etc), whilst the bears (TSLAQ crowd) will argue its an overvalued badly run automobile company with an Ipad stuck onto a plastic frame  & a volatile CEO at the helm.
  • Here is an interesting piece from the Macro Tourist who has gone short Tesla with a stop along the recent 960ish highs. Whilst KVP has no dog in this fight, any short expressions would be tactical long puts (i.e. vol is historically low across asset classes), unless one has the capacity to do intraday trades. With ESG & Social Impact investing being a key theme that will not go away – alongside very few pure plays out there – its hard to envisage a world where Tesla goes to zero, could it go to $1000 or double again to $1600? Absolutely, especially if the equity melt-up continues.

 

On The Radar Today:

(Times would be SGT)

  • NZ: Biz Mfg. Index 49.6a 49.2
  • JP: Tertiary Industry Activity
  • EZ: GER Flash GDP +0.2%e +1.0%p, EZ Flash GDP 1.0%e/p & Jobs data, TB
  • US: Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Bix. Inv., FOMC’s Mester @ 00:45

 

-

Have a fantastic wkd ahead everyone, stay healthy as well as keep your mind open to profitable & abundant opportunities. Life happens for us. 

Namaste,

-KVP

 

-

Some Anchor Pieces from #SaxoStrats:

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.