Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Equity indices continue to push higher despite a U.S. government shutdown. Tech is leading the charge as big-ticket AI spending and partnerships fuels optimism. Gold prices also reached new highs and now takes a small breather as Chinese demand is expected to wane during Golden week. OpenAI insiders sold $6.6b of stock to new investors, valuing the company at half a trillion dollars! More below on this week’s key stories.
U.S. Government Shutdown
Markets slowed only temporarily at the news of a U.S. Government shutdown this week. For now, we keep calm and carry on, but risks remain if the shutdown is lengthy. The biggest risk is the temporary blackout of economic data, leaving policy makers and investors alike in the dark to the actual pulse of the economy.
US government shutdowns explained: your 10 key questions answered | Saxo
Positive AI news fuels the AI trade
This week OpenAI has signed a deal with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for Stargate data centres. Hitachi Ltd teamed up with OpenAi on energy. Fujitsu and Nvidia expanded their partnership creating AI infrastructure. And Alibaba shares jumped after JPM raised PT by 45% on cloud and AI synergies.
More Frenzy in AI Trade
Oil supply in focus
Oil futures tumbled this week as investors increasingly expect OPEC+ to fast track a boost in supply when they meet this weekend. Brent is on track for its 5th day of consecutive declines, having fallen almost 8% this week.
Oil moves lower
This weekend is just as busy as the week that follows with Japan’s ruling LDP party set to hold a leadership contest, and we have OPEC+ deciding on production levels. It is a quiet week for data releases especially while the U.S. Government shut down continues. Wednesday sees a rate decision from the RBNZ and FOMC minutes are released in the U.S. All the while Golden week continues through to Wednesday!