The Week Ahead: US & Russia hold talks on Ukraine, Cyber Monday and US PCE inflation

It’s another busy week for financial markets as investors look ahead to high level talks on Ukraine set to take place against the backdrop of the Russian-US peace process.A US delegation is expected in Moscow in the first half of the week, whilst EU and Nato diplomats try to figure out their position. Cyber Monday is the big shopping event and delayed PCE inflation is the main event on the economic calendar for the week.

Here’s the key events to watch this week.

Monday, 1 December

OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meetings on Sunday set the tone for crude markets, while Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing data will provide equities and commodities a bit of a steer in overnight trade. Bank of Japan governor Ueda is set to speak as the central banks moves towards hiking rates.

On the data front the UK has manufacturing PMI and mortgage approvals figures, while the main event later in the day is the US ISM manufacturing PMI.

EU defence ministers meet in Brussels to discuss militarysupport for Ukraine, while a US delegation including special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected in Russia in the first half of the week to discuss the 28-point peace plan drawn up between Washington and Moscow.

And it’s Cyber Monday - Adobe Analytics expects sales to rise 6.3%, down from last year’s 7.3% gain. Amazon will be in focus around this event.

Tuesday, 2 December

The OECD releases its latest economic outlook for member countries and other major economies. Eurozone CPI and unemployment data will be the majorevent for the economic calendar. US vehicle sales data could impact some of the auto stocks (Ford, GM, Tesla, Rivian, Stellantis, etc).

Fed chair Jay Powell is due to speak late Monday, early Tuesday morning (UK time), in a panel discussion about his economic policy contributions at Stanford University. It comes just a week ahead of the 10 Dec Fed policy decision, which markets have decided will produce a cut.

Signet Jewelers – whose stock jumped after the announcement of Taylor Swift’s engagement earlier this year – reports earnings. Cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike also reports. In the UK, On The Beach and Topps Tiles report full-year results.

Wednesday, 3 December

Big data day starts with Australian GDP figures (AUD crosses) and Swiss CPI inflation (CHF). US data comes heavy with industrial production, ADP employment change, ISM services index, and mortgage applications.

NATO foreign affairs ministers meet in Brussels to coordinate military aid and outline long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron makes a state visit to China.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane gives a keynote speech at a foreign exchange conference in Ljubljana, while we also hear from Bank of England rate setter Catherine Mann.

Dow component Salesforce reports earnings – is AI ‘killing’ software or are the likes of CRM making a comeback? Snowflake also reports Q3 earnings, while in the UK Paragon Group delivers full-year results.

Thursday, 4 December

The Challenger jobs report will be in focus again after the last release showed the biggest October job cuts in 22 years. Weekly unemployment claims data is also due, and could add to an emergingpicture of softness in the labour market which has pushed the market to expect a rate cut by the Fed this month.

Earnings come from Docusign, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise and Lululemon in the US, and Future and SSP in the UK.

Friday, 5 December

The September US PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, is released days before the next FOMC meeting. This is arguably the last piece of data that could prevent the Fed from cutting rates next week. The University of Michigan releases its closely watched index of consumer sentiment. There are also some Eurozone numbers – final GDP, German factory orders and French industrial production. Halifax’s UK house price index is due.