Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
London Quick Take – 28 Nov - Mixed start in quiet Thanksgiving hangover trade, outage at CME hits futures, UK debt profile is changing
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
It's a mixed bag in Europe in a quiet open on Friday with the FTSE 100 ticking up a touch and the DAX and CAC both a shade lower. Wall St reopens later for a pointless half-day – something about the 1929 crash and markets not being allowed to shut for more than three consecutive days. In today's world with 24/5 trading that seems a bit of an anachronism, but disruptions in derivatives and futures markets - which provide liquidity and price discovery outside the normal trading hours - do happen!
Thanksgiving trading isn’t thin enough ...Trading in Wall Street futures was disrupted overnight due to an outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Trading in a host of commodity futures and derivatives, FX and Treasuries were also disrupted by the outage. US stock markets were closed on Thursday and will reopen today until 1pm, Eastern time. The outage combined with the lack of volume on a usually quiet day means price discovery is shot today.
It's been a while since we’ve had such a long outage. Good news was it happened during the US holiday so there was not a lot of action and orders...silver conspiracy theories going about that CME was worried about a thin order book and shut it down to prevent a breakout...
All the major indices are heading for a down month - the S&P 500 was down 0.4% month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.29% lower and the Nasdaq Composite notching a 2.15% retreat. That’s despite a hefty bounce this week as all three major indices rose for a fourth straight day on Wednesday. Volatility has cooled - the VIX has slipped back to around 17 after sitting above 25 just a week ago.
Markets have been buoyed in recent days by a shortening in the odds for a December rate cut following some dovish remarks by Fed officials and softer economic data in the US. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the front-runner to be the next Fed chair and could be announced before Christmas. Fed + White House in sync = ‘run it hot’ = lower rates, higher inflation expectations, steeper curve and equities positive in 2026. It's a lukewarm end to a volatile November but European indices are poised to eke out a fifth month of gains, which would be the best run since March 2024.
Finally...just when you thought Labour might have pulled off a tax-and-spend Budget without too much political damage, buying off restless MPs by ending the two-child benefit cap and soothing restless bond vigilantes with higher taxes to create more fiscal headroom (albeit based on pie-in-the-sky forecasts and assumptions), the government decided to bin its headline day one dismissal protections from its flagship employment rights bill, risking a fresh run-in with its own backbenchers once more. But businesses will be a little happier.
Sterling has slipped back after its post-Budget relief rally. The doji candle on GBPUSD yesterday indicates indecision at best, perhaps a reversal with the cross now testing 1.320 round number support having posted its best in a month on Thursday at 1.3270. EURGBP meanwhile has climbed off its 50-day SMA to rally a touch after hitting a three-week low.
STIR the pot: Gilt markets are still steady post-Budget – lots of reporting today about the UK shortening the maturity of its debt profile to benefit from lower rates at the front end. This is a sensible move, given the structural shift as defined benefit pension schemes exit the market - even if it means coming back to the market often and being a little more sensitive to short term rates. Britain currently has an average maturity of 14 years, which is about twice that of peers. UK pension fund ownership of gilts will fall from almost 30 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 11 per cent by 2074. This would raise the interest rate on UK govt debt by 80bps, according to a Banque de France report. The problem with shortening maturities might be a lack of demand for money market funds in the UK. Which is where perhaps stablecoins should come in. The UK has, of course, some catching up to do with the US in creating an ecosystem for stablecoins - which require debt instruments like Treasury bills as backing. Stablecoins designed to maintain a 1:1 peg to, say, the USD are required to back their issued tokens with highly liquid, short-term assets, such as short-term US Treasury bills (T-bills), typically with maturities of 90 days or less. The Bank of England proposed a regime for sterling-denominated stablecoins earlier this month – the wheels are in motion, it seems, for a significant restructuring in the way the UK government issues debt.
Thanksgiving trading isn’t thin enough ...Trading in Wall Street futures was disrupted overnight due to an outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Trading in a host of commodity futures and derivatives, FX and Treasuries were also disrupted by the outage. US stock markets were closed on Thursday and will reopen today until 1pm, Eastern time. The outage combined with the lack of volume on a usually quiet day means price discovery is shot today.
It's been a while since we’ve had such a long outage. Good news was it happened during the US holiday so there was not a lot of action and orders...silver conspiracy theories going about that CME was worried about a thin order book and shut it down to prevent a breakout...
All the major indices are heading for a down month - the S&P 500 was down 0.4% month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.29% lower and the Nasdaq Composite notching a 2.15% retreat. That’s despite a hefty bounce this week as all three major indices rose for a fourth straight day on Wednesday. Volatility has cooled - the VIX has slipped back to around 17 after sitting above 25 just a week ago.
Markets have been buoyed in recent days by a shortening in the odds for a December rate cut following some dovish remarks by Fed officials and softer economic data in the US. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the front-runner to be the next Fed chair and could be announced before Christmas. Fed + White House in sync = ‘run it hot’ = lower rates, higher inflation expectations, steeper curve and equities positive in 2026. It's a lukewarm end to a volatile November but European indices are poised to eke out a fifth month of gains, which would be the best run since March 2024.
Finally...just when you thought Labour might have pulled off a tax-and-spend Budget without too much political damage, buying off restless MPs by ending the two-child benefit cap and soothing restless bond vigilantes with higher taxes to create more fiscal headroom (albeit based on pie-in-the-sky forecasts and assumptions), the government decided to bin its headline day one dismissal protections from its flagship employment rights bill, risking a fresh run-in with its own backbenchers once more. But businesses will be a little happier.
Sterling has slipped back after its post-Budget relief rally. The doji candle on GBPUSD yesterday indicates indecision at best, perhaps a reversal with the cross now testing 1.320 round number support having posted its best in a month on Thursday at 1.3270. EURGBP meanwhile has climbed off its 50-day SMA to rally a touch after hitting a three-week low.
STIR the pot: Gilt markets are still steady post-Budget – lots of reporting today about the UK shortening the maturity of its debt profile to benefit from lower rates at the front end. This is a sensible move, given the structural shift as defined benefit pension schemes exit the market - even if it means coming back to the market often and being a little more sensitive to short term rates. Britain currently has an average maturity of 14 years, which is about twice that of peers. UK pension fund ownership of gilts will fall from almost 30 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 11 per cent by 2074. This would raise the interest rate on UK govt debt by 80bps, according to a Banque de France report. The problem with shortening maturities might be a lack of demand for money market funds in the UK. Which is where perhaps stablecoins should come in. The UK has, of course, some catching up to do with the US in creating an ecosystem for stablecoins - which require debt instruments like Treasury bills as backing. Stablecoins designed to maintain a 1:1 peg to, say, the USD are required to back their issued tokens with highly liquid, short-term assets, such as short-term US Treasury bills (T-bills), typically with maturities of 90 days or less. The Bank of England proposed a regime for sterling-denominated stablecoins earlier this month – the wheels are in motion, it seems, for a significant restructuring in the way the UK government issues debt.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...