Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations of any kind.)
To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here
APAC Global Macro Morning Brief
So the US gets fully back in today, post Monday’s Veterans day. Overnight sessions was dominated by risk-off sentiment, which was likely a combination of profit taking from last wk, US/CH trade jitters & escalations on the streets of HK
With all that said, US equity futures bounced from the lows, c. -0.50% at one point before finishing -0.10% for the sessions – neither here nor there
Early days this Tues Asia Morning but we are a touch lower at -0.10% on US equity futures, and up to -0.35% on ASX futures, however the Nikkei & Hang Seng are looking up at +0.26% & +0.70% - the latter, likely a technical bounce after pulling back -2.6% yesterday
And just for context, people were being sent home from work across businesses in HK for their safety – so going c. + 5months of protests, the level of conflict is increasing. Its tough to see things changing for the better anytime soon
At the end of the day, this is a structural social imbalance problem, a massive concentration of wealth in the hands of the few – which is by itself is not necessarily bad – yet at the expense of where the many, have little to no options available to them from a housing, working & living perspective – which is obviously unacceptable for a long-term functioning society
The extradition bill, was just the proverbial straw on the camel’s back on what has been brewing for years
And the fascinating (& sad… yet perhaps long-term good) thing is we are seeing this across the globe, Trump, Brexit, Argentina, Chile, Europe… not trying to say all these places are the same, nor justifying violence by any means... yet its this breaking down of the "social contract" – where its quite clear that whilst there was a lot of growth & low fruit in the system, policy makers & officials could coast along, yet it’s a very different world we live in today
The countries & societies that will thrive, will be those that will be proactive on these structural challenges
As very successful & wealthy individual once told me, what’s the point of being rich if you need an armoured car to take you from one heavily guarded location to another heavily guarded location - you may as well live in a jail
-
New overnight that Nigel Farage will focus on labor instead of Tories (& not contest seats in the election for the Brexit Party), puts some fuel in cable's rockets, as we jumped +0.63% to 1.2855. To be honest these are likely crosses that see a lot more sterling strength.
Have a brilliant day & watch out for FOMC’s Clarida today 18:30 SGT (05:30 ET) as he may give some hints on Powell’s testimony on the economy later this wk
Namaste
-KVP
Today:
Other:
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)