APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Tue 12 Nov 2019: Stay In The Game

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations of any kind.)

To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here


APAC Global Macro Morning Brief

Happy Macro Tue 12 Nov 2019: Stay In The Game

So the US gets fully back in today, post Monday’s Veterans day. Overnight sessions was dominated by risk-off sentiment, which was likely a combination of profit taking from last wk, US/CH trade jitters & escalations on the streets of HK

With all that said, US equity futures bounced from the lows, c. -0.50% at one point before finishing -0.10% for the sessions – neither here nor there

Early days this Tues Asia Morning but we are a touch lower at -0.10% on US equity futures, and up to -0.35% on ASX futures, however the Nikkei & Hang Seng are looking up at +0.26% & +0.70% - the latter, likely a technical bounce after pulling back -2.6% yesterday

And just for context, people were being sent home from work across businesses in HK for their safety – so going c. + 5months of protests, the level of conflict is increasing. Its tough to see things changing for the better anytime soon

At the end of the day, this is a structural social imbalance problem, a massive concentration of wealth in the hands of the few – which is by itself is not necessarily bad – yet at the expense of where the many, have little to no options available to them from a housing, working & living perspective – which is obviously unacceptable for a long-term functioning society

The extradition bill, was just the proverbial straw on the camel’s back on what has been brewing for years

And the fascinating (& sad… yet perhaps long-term good) thing is we are seeing this across the globe, Trump, Brexit, Argentina, Chile, Europe… not trying to say all these places are the same, nor justifying violence by any means... yet its this breaking down of the "social contract" – where its quite clear that whilst there was a lot of growth & low fruit in the system, policy makers & officials could coast along, yet it’s a very different world we live in today

The countries & societies that will thrive, will be those that will be proactive on these structural challenges

As very successful & wealthy individual once told me, what’s the point of being rich if you need an armoured car to take you from one heavily guarded location to another heavily guarded location - you may as well live in a jail 

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New overnight that Nigel Farage will focus on labor instead of Tories (& not contest seats in the election for the Brexit Party), puts some fuel in cable's rockets, as we jumped +0.63% to 1.2855. To be honest these are likely crosses that see a lot more sterling strength. 

Have a brilliant day & watch out for FOMC’s Clarida today 18:30 SGT (05:30 ET) as he may give some hints on Powell’s testimony on the economy later this wk

Namaste

-KVP

Today:

• AU: NAB Business Confidence

• NZ: Inflation Expectations Q/Q 1.86%p

• JP: 30y bond auction, preliminary machine tool orders

• US: NFIB Small Business Index, Mortgage Delinquencies
  • FOMC’s Clarida @ 18:30 SGT (05:30 ET)
  
   

Other:

• To catch this wk’s Macro Monday Click here…  & replay of the call here

   

• Don’t forget to bookmark & check our Daily SaxoStrats calls from the European morning session c. 09:00 CET

   

• Dembik’s latest Macro View presentation: Slowdown or Meltdown? KVP loves Dembik slides, always nice, simple & clean… also note him flagging the most important chart this month showing China Credit impulse turning into positive territory

   

• Hansen’s latest overview from the CoT report on Commodities as well as Currencies