Asia Market Quick Take – 25 February, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 25 February, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Japan PM voices concerns on additional rate hikes
• Equities: AMD up 8.8% on Meta GPU deal; Stocks bounced on reduced AI disruption fears
• FX: USD stable; rising US confidence; JPY weak on BoJ rate concerns
• Commodities: Precious metals fell while base metals rallied
• Fixed income:US Treasuries flat; curve flattened as front end lagged

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro: 

• Japan PM Sanae Takaichi voiced worries about additional rate increases in her meeting last week with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
• US consumer confidence increased by 2.2 points to 91.2 in February despite affordability and labor market concerns, per Conference Board data. It's still below the peak from November 2024.
• The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.4% year-over-year in December 2025, indicating a cooling housing market as gains lagged behind 2.7% inflation. Chicago led with a 5.3% increase, while Tampa fell 2.9%. Sun Belt markets like Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami also saw declines.
• US private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, up from 11,500 previously, per ADP. This marks the fastest hiring pace since late November, indicating accelerating job growth.
• The UK CBI retail sales balance fell to -43 in February 2026, with sales described as “poor.” Sentiment is low, leading to reduced investment and employment. Retail prices grew normally, while online sales surged. Inventory management is cautious amidst weak demand and rising costs.

Equities:

• US - US stocks rebounded Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow up 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.1% as markets recovered from Monday’s selloff. Fears of rapid AI‑driven software disruption eased, lifting Salesforce 4.1% and IBM 2.7%. AMD jumped 8.8% after Meta agreed to deploy 6GW of its GPUs for AI data centers, while DocuSign gained 2.6% on news that Anthropic’s Claude Cowork now integrates with its platform. The optimism helped offset concerns over the new 10% global tariff taking effect, even as the White House prepares a move to 15%. Home Depot rose 2% after its first earnings beat in a year.
• EU -European equities edged higher Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s losses as investors reassessed fears that advancing AI would rapidly displace traditional sectors. The STOXX 50 rose 0.1% to 6,122 and the STOXX 600 gained 0.3%, remaining near last week’s record. AI‑infrastructure beneficiaries outperformed ahead of Nvidia’s US earnings and Meta’s deal with AMD, lifting ASML 1.1% and Infineon 1.8%. Autos also rebounded after the US imposed a softer‑than‑feared 10% tariff on European goods, boosting BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes‑Benz over 1%. However, SAP, Adyen and major banks extended declines.
• HK - Hang Seng fell 1.8%, to 26,590, reversing most of the previous day's gains. Wall Street's sharp drop due to tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions impacted sectors like consumer, tech, and financials. Despite China and Japan reopening from holidays, traders focused on new friction as China restricted exports to 20 Japanese firms. Losses were partly offset by gains in mainland stocks with hopes of a U.S. tariff reset benefiting China. CK Hutchison dropped 2.7% after Panama cancelled its port contracts. Tech stocks mirrored U.S. AI concerns, with Kingdee Intl. plunging 8.0%, SenseTime down 6.1%, and Alibaba Hong Kong falling 2.4%.
• SG - Singapore Airlines reported a 69% drop in Q3 net profit due to last year's Air India-Vistara merger gain absence and rising costs. Despite strong passenger demand, net profit fell to S$505 million, with expenditure rising to S$4.71 billion. OCBC's Q4 profit increased 3% due to non-interest income growth. Announced final dividend of 42 cents and special 16-cent dividend for 2025. Net interest income fell; stable outlook with expected mid-single-digit loan growth for 2026.

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday: Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake, Paramount Skydance, Lowe’s, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, HSBC, OCBC, Fortescue
•  Thursday: Baidu, Intuit, Block
• Friday: None

FX:

• USD remained roughly unchanged after earlier fluctuations. US consumer confidence rose in February, with the Conference Board’s index at 91.2, surpassing expectations. Meanwhile, US private payrolls averaged 12,750 weekly, but regional business activity declined. Traders are watching Trump's State of the Union address amid uncertainty over tariffs and Iran tensions.
• JPY weakened as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concern over additional BoJ rate hikes. USDJPY hit a two-week high of 156.28 before retreating.
• GBP was muted following numerous comments from BoE policymakers. Governor Bailey indicated that an April/May rate cut is still uncertain, while Pill expressed hawkish concerns about easing policy, citing upside risks to the inflation target. GBPUSD ended flat at around 1.3498, down from earlier highs of 1.3537.
• EURUSD dropped 0.1% to 1.1775,USDCHF fell 0.1% to 0.7740, with the Swiss National Bank ready to intervene if needed.

Commodities:

• Gold eased, extending the prior session’s drop, as traders pared near-term Fed cut bets; bullion hovered around $5,130 after Tuesday’s 1.6% fall that ended a four-day run, while Boston Fed’s Susan Collins said rates may stay unchanged “for some time” amid improving US labour data; silver slipped 0.4% to $86.80, and platinum and palladium also fell.
• Oil rose as traders weighed the chances of a US–Iran nuclear deal ahead of Thursday’s talks amid a large US deployment in the Middle East, with WTI around $66 after a 1% drop and Brent below $71, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the CIA director briefed senior lawmakers as the build-up fuelled attack speculation.
•  Base metals advanced as China’s markets reopened after Lunar New Year and optimism over potentially lower US tariffs lifted sentiment; copper jumped as much as 2.8% to $13,228 a tonne in London, while aluminium also edged higher.

Fixed income:

• US Treasuries ended little changed with a flatter curve ahead of 5‑ and 7‑year auctions, as the 2‑year sale tailed slightly but showed firm demand and the 5s30s almost fully reversed Monday’s steepening on front‑end underperformance; short‑dated Australian bonds edged lower before the inflation print and an RBA Governor Bullock fireside chat, and Singapore, Japan and the US are set to auction bonds.

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