Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Investor Content Strategist
An investment trust offering access to the burgeoning space economy has launched an equity raise ahead of one of its key holdings listing on the stock market this year.
Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LSE:SSIT) said it’s raising £350mn to broaden access to space investment to more retail investors.
It comes after a rocket-fueled year for the trust’s shares, which had jumped by 340% ahead of the announcement, which sent shares down sharply as investors adjusted to the implied dilution.
Nevertheless, with the mooted SpaceX IPO this year there has never been more focus on the fledgling space economy.
Seraphim launched in 2021 and has backed a total of 45 space technology companies – nine of which are unicorns worth over $1bn. It does not however have a stake in SpaceX.
However, Seraphim has New York IPO to look forward to with HawkEye 360 filing for a listing. Seraphim holds a 10% stake in the US space tech business, which uses satellites to detect and analyse radio signals, providing intelligence on ship movements for instance. Seraphim reckons the $2.76bn listing could lift its net asset value by as much as 3.3%.HawkEye aims to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "HAWK".
SpaceX privately filed for an IPO earlier this month and the market is opening up. Investors will be hopeful that the frenzy that is expected to surround a SpaceX IPO will generate favourable market conditions for other space-tech listings this year. Indeed it looks like the IPO market is very much open to the defence and aerospace sector in general and companies are keen to take advantage.
Seraphim Space Investment Trust is effectively the public market’s closest thing to a specialist venture-capital gateway into SpaceTech — a London-listed trust giving retail investors exposure to private and late-stage companies spanning Earth observation, defence intelligence, in-space logistics, communications and next-gen navigation. It was launched five years ago as the world’s first listed SpaceTech investment trust, targeting what it sees as a multi-decade structural growth story tied to defence, AI infrastructure, climate monitoring and sovereign communications. The portfolio typically holds 20–50 companies, with a heavy bias toward the US, UK and Europe.
The big picture: this is not a conventional aerospace ETF. Seraphim is much closer to a high-risk, venture-style investment vehicle — more akin to backing future category leaders before IPO, with valuations driven by funding rounds, strategic contracts and exit optionality. That means upside can be explosive, but liquidity and valuation risk are materially higher than mainstream listed funds.
Portfolio snapshot: Top holdings (source: Saxo, 28/04/26)
ICEYE (20.72%)
D-Orbit (11.71%)
ALL.SPACE (10.93%)
HawkEye 360 (9.53%)
SatVu (6.42%%)
LeoLabs (5.94%)
Core holdings breakdown
1. ICEYE
ICEYE is Seraphim’s dominant position and the key NAV driver. The Finnish company operates synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites, allowing high-resolution Earth imaging regardless of weather or darkness. This matters enormously for military surveillance, border security, disaster monitoring and insurance analytics. ICEYE has increasingly become a defence-tech asset as governments prioritise real-time intelligence. Recent company updates point to €250m+ revenue and a large backlog, underscoring its move from speculative startup to scaled strategic infrastructure. Its newly formed joint venture with Rheinmetall recently won a €1.7bn contract to provide the German military with space-based reconnaissance data.
Investor angle: ICEYE is effectively Seraphim’s SpaceX-like “proof point” — if it exits at a premium valuation, it could significantly rerate the trust. There has been talk about an IPO last year but for now it’s waiting.
2. D-Orbit
Italy-based D-Orbit focuses on orbital transportation and satellite deployment infrastructure — essentially “last-mile delivery” in space. As satellite constellations proliferate, the ability to deploy, reposition and service assets becomes more valuable. Think of it as logistics middleware for the space economy.
Investor angle: More speculative than ICEYE, but offers leverage to launch volume growth.
3. ALL.SPACE
ALL.SPACE builds advanced antenna and satellite communications systems, particularly relevant for military and sovereign telecoms. In a world of contested communications and defence digitisation, this is one of Seraphim’s clearest “hard power” plays.
Investor angle: This holding has benefited from defence repricing and strategic relevance.
4. HawkEye 360
US-based HawkEye tracks radio frequency signals globally from space, identifying ships, aircraft and electronic activity. This is increasingly valuable for intelligence agencies, sanctions monitoring and military targeting.
Investor angle:HawkEye combines geospatial intelligence with defence software economics.
Why investors are paying attention now
Seraphim’s portfolio is increasingly intersecting with three major themes:
Defence spending boom
Space infrastructure as AI/data backbone
Lower launch costs + SpaceX ecosystem effects
The trust reported NAV growth of 20.1% for the six months to the end of December, with over 85% of portfolio fair value expecting EBITDA profitability in 2026.
Key risks
This remains speculative:
Heavy concentration in ICEYE
Many holdings remain private/unquoted
Valuations can swing sharply with funding sentiment
Follow-on capital needs may dilute returns
Sensitive to defence spending and IPO market conditions
Seraphim Space is best viewed as a high-beta, venture-capital-style thematic trust rather than a steady compounder. For investors bullish on the commercialisation of space, defence intelligence and sovereign infrastructure, it offers unique exposure that traditional aerospace ETFs miss. But concentration risk is real: this is closer to backing the future “picks and shovels” of the space economy than buying a diversified index.
An alternative to Seraphim is the VanEck Space Innovators ETF - ticker JEDI, which owns stakes in some of the best-known listed space economy stocks including Planet Labs, Rocket Lab, ViaSat, EchoStar, Globalstar and the Seraphim-backed AST SpaceMobile.