SpaceX IPO may be coming. Here’s why the Space Economy theme is in focus.

Key points:

• The space economy is drawing more investor attention because it is increasingly tied to commercial communications, geospatial data, defense resilience, and critical infrastructure, rather than being viewed only as a speculative rocket story. In our view, that makes it easier to analyse through a public-markets lens.
• Investors do not need to wait for any SpaceX listing for the theme to appear in public markets. Examples already exist across broad ETFs as well as listed companies tied to launch systems, satellite communications, earth observation, and defense-linked technologies.
• The opportunity may be broadening, but the risk profile is uneven across the value chain. Some parts of the space economy are supported by recurring revenues, backlogs, or government demand, while others remain more sensitive to valuation, execution, capital needs, and timing.

SpaceX IPO buzz is doing what great market stories always do: pulling attention toward a theme investors were only half-watching before. But the bigger point is not whether SpaceX lists tomorrow or next quarter. It is that the space economy is already becoming a public-markets theme.

Investors are looking beyond rockets to satellite connectivity, earth observation, defense, and the infrastructure that sits behind them. In our view, SpaceX may be the headline, but the investable opportunity linked to the theme is much broader.

Why investors are looking at this theme

Three forces are driving interest:

• Launch costs have fallen and access has improved. That has made satellites, earth observation, and in-orbit connectivity more commercially viable than they were a decade ago.
• Demand is broadening. This is not just rockets. The growth areas are communications, positioning and navigation, defense applications, and earth observation. The World Economic Forum cites space-based communications, navigation, and earth observation as key drivers of a space economy it expects to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.
• Geopolitics is making space more strategic. Investors increasingly see space as tied to defense resilience, intelligence, and communications security. That makes it less of a “moonshot theme” and more of an infrastructure theme with government and enterprise demand behind it.

Examples of listed instruments linked to the theme before any SpaceX listing

Investors do not need to wait for a SpaceX IPO for the theme to show up in public markets. Examples of listed instruments linked to the theme already exist across ETFs and individual stocks. These are included for information purposes only and are not a recommendation.

1. Broad thematic ETFs

Why investors look at it: For investors who want broad thematic exposure, ETFs may offer a simpler way to access the space theme without relying on a single company or sub-sector.

• ARKX — combines space, aerospace, and adjacent innovation exposure; useful for investors looking for a broader innovation-led interpretation of the theme rather than a narrow pure-play approach.
• ROKT — offers broader final-frontier exposure, including aerospace and defense-linked names; relevant for those who view the space theme through the lens of industrial and defense infrastructure.
• UFO — one of the more explicit space-economy ETFs; more relevant for investors looking for a basket with clearer linkage to satellite, communications, and orbital-economy exposure.

Risk to watch: ETF exposure can reduce single-stock risk, but holdings can vary significantly in theme purity, and some funds may include adjacent names that dilute direct space exposure.

2. Direct stock exposure by sub-theme

Another way to think about the theme is by looking at listed companies across the value chain that are already showing revenues, contracts, or backlogs. The names below are examples of listed instruments linked to the theme and are not a recommendation.

Launch and space systems

Why investors look at it: In our view, this is among the closest listed routes to the part of the space economy most associated with SpaceX — launch capability, spacecraft systems, and mission execution.

• Rocket Lab — one of the clearest listed launch names; 2025 revenue rose to $602 million, up 38% year on year, while backlog reached $1.85 billion, up 73%; it is not just a rocket company, but also generates revenue from spacecraft systems, components, and mission services.
• Intuitive Machines — offers exposure to lunar missions and space infrastructure; its positioning around NASA-linked lunar services and moon-delivery capabilities gives investors exposure to a more differentiated next phase of the space theme.

Risk to watch: This part of the theme is among the most execution-sensitive, with launch delays, contract timing, and funding needs capable of driving sharp swings in sentiment.

Satellite communications

Why investors look at it: Satellite communications is one of the clearest commercial use cases in space, offering exposure to connectivity, communications resilience, and recurring service revenues.

• Iridium — the steadier, infrastructure-like name in the bucket; 2025 service revenue reached $634 million, with 2026 guidance for flat to 2% growth; its mature recurring-revenue model offers investors space exposure without relying purely on speculation.
• AST SpaceMobile — a higher-beta direct-to-cell story; its ambition to connect standard mobile phones directly via satellite makes the addressable market meaningfully broader if execution succeeds.
• Viasat — offers exposure to broadband and satellite communications infrastructure; its established connectivity platform spans both commercial and government use cases.
• EchoStar — adds exposure to spectrum and communications assets; it offers exposure to satellite-enabled connectivity without relying on launch activity.

Risk to watch: The commercial case is attractive, but competition is intense, capital needs can be high, and some business models still depend on adoption that is not yet fully proven at scale.

Earth observation and geospatial data

Why investors look at it: This is where investors get exposure to the data side of the space economy, with monetisation increasingly driven by analytics, intelligence, and recurring information services rather than hardware alone.

• Planet Labs — one of the clearest listed geospatial-data names; quarterly revenue reached $86.8 million, up 41% year on year; its daily earth-imaging and analytics platform has applications across governments, climate monitoring, agriculture, supply chains, and security.
• BlackSky — offers exposure to real-time geospatial intelligence; its focus on speed and intelligence-led imagery ties it more directly to defense and security use cases.

Risk to watch: The data opportunity is broad, but monetisation can be uneven, customer concentration matters, and valuations can still run ahead of profitability.

Defense and mission-critical suppliers

Why investors look at it: In our view, for many investors this may be the most practical way to access the strategic importance of space through stronger cash flows, government demand, and more mature business models.

• L3Harris — it offers exposure to mission systems, surveillance, communications resilience, and defense electronics that support space-linked capabilities.
• Lockheed Martin — its deep positioning across missiles, defense, and space programs makes it one of the most established large-cap ways to access the theme.
• Northrop Grumman — it offers exposure to national security, aerospace systems, and strategic programs tied to the space-defense nexus.
• Teledyne — its sensors, imaging, and mission-critical technology footprint gives it a less headline-driven but still highly relevant role in the value chain.

Risk to watch: This bucket may offer more stability, but it is less pure-play, and performance can be driven as much by broader defense budgets and procurement cycles as by space alone.

Risks in direct stock exposure

Even where the long-term theme is compelling, the risks are meaningful:

• Valuation risk: Some of the more exciting names can rally well ahead of earnings or cash flows.
• Execution risk: Launch delays, contract timing, adoption setbacks, or funding needs can hit sentiment quickly.
• Business model risk: A launch company, a satellite operator, and a geospatial-data provider may all sit under the same theme, but they have very different economics.
• Policy and contract risk: Many names in this space are tied to government demand, regulation, or procurement cycles.
• Timing risk: Investors can be right on the long-term direction of the space economy and still get the entry point badly wrong.

Bottom line

In our view, SpaceX may be the spark, but the space economy is already visible in public markets.

The more useful investor question is not how to chase the headline, but how to understand which parts of the value chain are already showing up in listed markets through infrastructure, data, connectivity, and defense.

The examples above are intended to illustrate how the theme already appears in public markets. They are provided for information purposes only and are not a recommendation.