Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Investor Content Strategist
The blockbuster SpaceX IPO – rumoured to be lined up for debut in June when a rare planetary alignment occurs – is generating a huge amount of investor interest, not least among holders of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT).
The UK investment trust put out a note defining its valuation of Elon Musk’s private space company due to the number of queries from SMT shareholders.
SMT, which is run by Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford, says it’s holding SpaceX at a valuation of $1.25tn. The position was marked up during Q1 2026 as we saw the secondary market recalibrate and rebase to the merged valuation of SpaceX/xAI.
Scottish Mortgage said it deliberately places the current carrying value for SpaceX below the $1.75tn figure reported in the press.
Baillie Gifford and its independent third-party provider, S&P Global, value private holdings “based on verifiable transactions, not press speculation”.
Regarding lock-up terms, the fund manager said it does not yet know what restrictions will apply to existing shareholders post-listing, how long any lock-up period will last, or whether Scottish Mortgage will be subject to the same terms as other pre-IPO investors.
Scottish Mortgage first invested in SpaceX in 2018 and has invested a total of £151mn in the company since then through to 2021. The overall private company exposure by the end of March was 41.6%, well above the fund’s 30% limit, which has constrained its ability to make fresh investments in the private space.
As of the end of Q1 it said this investment was now worth £2.98bn (USD $3.94bn)– a c19.7x increase. It means SpaceX amounts to 20% of the fund’s net asset value.
SMT went through a tough period as investors questioned the value of its private book and a lack of visibility in its investments, but this has been worked through in large part thanks to the surge in SpaceX’s valuation. If the SpaceX IPO goes ahead then the % of private holdings within the fund would fall significantly.Once listed, the SpaceX holding will convert from a private asset to a publicly traded security marked to market daily, which SMT says will introduce more visible movement into our NAV.
SpaceX has been a key asset for SMT – the largest contributor to returns over 1, 3 and 5 years. Over 10 years, it is the 5th biggest contributor.
SpaceX lodged a confidential IPO filing statement with the SEC on 1st April 2026, according to various reports.
The company is said to be targeting a valuation of approximately $1.75tn and aiming to raise between $50-$75bn, which would make it the largest IPO in history.
It's believed that Elon Musk is targeting a June listing to coincided with a rare occurrence when the planets Jupiter and Venus align.
Read here for more on the funds and trusts with exposure to the IPO and check out this private equity investment trust offering investors a chance to participate in early-stage space tech companies.
Here's a look at SMT's major holdings