Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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'Santa rally' hopes shatter on S&P 500 selloff
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Bulls' hopes for a year-end rally in the S&P 500 were already on shaky ground following continued trade war noise surrounding the Huawei CFO arrest, but Friday's sell-off has likely put them to rest.
Bulls dreaming of a "Santa Claus rally" in the benchmark S&P 500 inxed saw their hopes shattered Friday with another sell-off taking the index down to crucial support at around 2,632. Support at this level is clear on an intraday chart like the one-hour chart below; the S&P 500 has dipped a few points below a few times but it has always jumped back.
Within the last hour of trading Friday, the S&P 500 managed to scramble just above this point to close at 2,633. A daily close below this area, however, could fuel a new sell-off and bulls will most likely have to forget about Santa coming around this year.
Renewed selling would most likely take the Index down to around 2,550. If – and it's a big 'if' – Santa changes his mind and comes around, do not expect many presents. Any rally at this point would likely not exceed a bounce back to 2,800 at best, where there seems to be strong resistance.
The Relative Strength Index is bearish, having been rejected at the 60 threshold; it has also broken its rising trendline.
Within the last hour of trading Friday, the S&P 500 managed to scramble just above this point to close at 2,633. A daily close below this area, however, could fuel a new sell-off and bulls will most likely have to forget about Santa coming around this year.
Renewed selling would most likely take the Index down to around 2,550. If – and it's a big 'if' – Santa changes his mind and comes around, do not expect many presents. Any rally at this point would likely not exceed a bounce back to 2,800 at best, where there seems to be strong resistance.
The Relative Strength Index is bearish, having been rejected at the 60 threshold; it has also broken its rising trendline.
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