Outrageous Predictions
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London Quick Take – 17 Dec - UK inflation cools to 3.2%, boosting case for Bank of England cut tomorrow, Tesla hits record high
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
I had a look at some key investing themes for 2026 here
and
UK inflation fell to 3.2%, down from 3.6% the month before and well below the 3.5% expected, cementing the fact that the Bank of England will cut rates tomorrow. I think it as well goes to my view that the BoE should be easing policy more quickly – the inflation we have seen is not done to a roaring economy that needs cooling, and it’s going to fall back to target just as GDP is about to show some very weak signals. It's time to ease, ease, ease. Sterling fell after hitting a two-month high yesterday, while stocks are ripping as investors adjusted to the prospect of deeper and swifter rate cuts next year. I think we should be seeing one or two of the hawks on the MPC turning more dovish now and this is enough - with the committee divided down the middle - to sharply change the calculation for cuts next year. I expect further cuts in Feb and Apr and ultimately 3% Bank Rate before this easing cycle ends.
Services inflation eased to 4.4 per cent in November from 4.5 per cent in October. Core inflation was 3.2 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in October and below expectations.
The FTSE 100 roared another 1% higher to close in on 9,800 again as insurers, banks, housebuilders rallied on the easing prospects, while metal prices – silver record high – lifted the miners. Spot silver hit a fresh record high of $65.23, up 2.3% from the prior close; previous high on Dec 12. It's up 124% YTD. 52-week low was $28.35 on Apr 7. Insurer Phoenix was the top riser and is now 40% higher YTD. It was I looked at earlier this year as part of the dividend giants on the FTSE.
US jobs report – more added than expected, but unemployment ticked up. Seasonal factors and shutdown distorting the numbers though and the overall sense seems to be that the labour market is slowing, supporting further rate cuts by the Fed next year. Tech rallied yesterday while the rest was largely off in a reversal of the rotation trade we have been seeing. Levered AI bets Oracle and Palantir both rose over 2%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%, the Dow dropped 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2% as markets leant defensive. Micron reports today.
US crude oil dropped below $55 a barrel, hitting lowest level since early 2021, both on Ukraine peace hopes and oversupply fears with record US production weighing, before prices jumped this morning after Donald Trump ordered “a total and complete” blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela
Tesla hit a record close amid optimism on self-driving and robotics despite EV headwinds. Shares rose 3.1% to $489.88 and reached $491.50 intraday; prior records were $479.86 (Dec 17, 2024) close and $488.54 (Dec 18) intraday.
Amazon is in talks to invest $10bn in OpenAI at more than $500bn valuation, aiding cloud costs via AWS and potentially using Trainium chips; deal may include commerce tie-ups, like making ChatGPT a shopping hub and an enterprise ChatGPT for Amazon...more of the circular AI economy but could give AI stocks a lift.
Services inflation eased to 4.4 per cent in November from 4.5 per cent in October. Core inflation was 3.2 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in October and below expectations.
The FTSE 100 roared another 1% higher to close in on 9,800 again as insurers, banks, housebuilders rallied on the easing prospects, while metal prices – silver record high – lifted the miners. Spot silver hit a fresh record high of $65.23, up 2.3% from the prior close; previous high on Dec 12. It's up 124% YTD. 52-week low was $28.35 on Apr 7. Insurer Phoenix was the top riser and is now 40% higher YTD. It was I looked at earlier this year as part of the dividend giants on the FTSE.
US jobs report – more added than expected, but unemployment ticked up. Seasonal factors and shutdown distorting the numbers though and the overall sense seems to be that the labour market is slowing, supporting further rate cuts by the Fed next year. Tech rallied yesterday while the rest was largely off in a reversal of the rotation trade we have been seeing. Levered AI bets Oracle and Palantir both rose over 2%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%, the Dow dropped 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2% as markets leant defensive. Micron reports today.
US crude oil dropped below $55 a barrel, hitting lowest level since early 2021, both on Ukraine peace hopes and oversupply fears with record US production weighing, before prices jumped this morning after Donald Trump ordered “a total and complete” blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela
Tesla hit a record close amid optimism on self-driving and robotics despite EV headwinds. Shares rose 3.1% to $489.88 and reached $491.50 intraday; prior records were $479.86 (Dec 17, 2024) close and $488.54 (Dec 18) intraday.
Amazon is in talks to invest $10bn in OpenAI at more than $500bn valuation, aiding cloud costs via AWS and potentially using Trainium chips; deal may include commerce tie-ups, like making ChatGPT a shopping hub and an enterprise ChatGPT for Amazon...more of the circular AI economy but could give AI stocks a lift.
and
Read my look at some ideas for 2026 here.
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