2026 stock-ing fillers: stocks for playing some key economic themes over the next 12 months

With 2026 fast approaching and the year nearly done, I’m at looking at some ideas for the next 12 months.

I’ve run the runes on some shifts taking place and identified a handful of inter-related themes that are based on a multi-year investment cycle that is being powered by structural shifts in the global economy.

Please note these are just some thought-starters to get you thinking and not in any way investment advice.

2025 has seen a lot of AI forth – unprofitable companies enjoying insane multiples. This is coming to an end, but AI isn’t going away and the earnings outlook remain positive, so we look to profitable, quality growth names. Growth a reasonable price is the mantra for 2026.

Potentially a contrarian view on the AI bubble theme here – 2026 could see a ramp (melt-up) in AI infrastructure spending as the scramble for winner-takes-all dominance reaches a new level.

Whilst this trend will continue to support the core players such as Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC et al, I’d like to also consider the broadening out of the AI capex trade alongside the acceleration in spend.

Monetization of AI investment will grow in focus, albeit near-term funding worries are probably overstated. Credit markets may start to get some indigestion from debt issuance to fund capex but Mag7 remains in good position to fund from free cash flow. 

So, I see three key threads in 2026 regards the AI trade – acceleration, broadening and monetization. Alphabet and Meta look well placed within the Mag7 space. Alphabet has parked its tanks on OpenAI’s lawn, while Meta is projecting a vision of capital discipline by reining in Metaverse spending. Both are also well placed to be first movers in showing meaningful monetization of their AI investment, through improved search/ad revenues.

Moving on from the picks-and-shovel plays in AI (Nvidia, TSMC, etc) 2026 could be the moment where we look towards the intersection between the practical use of AI and robots. Ageing populations, inflation and the AI support the case for automation as a theme. I’d also note policy support being fundamental and the Trump administration says it will go “all in” to boost the robotics industry, which may act as a tailwind for the likes of iRobot and Richtech Robots, though these are probably more on the speculative end. We have already seen the administration take equity stakes in companies within critical infrastructure – rare earths (MP Materials), chips (Intel) and I see this as part of a wider government-led effort to secure dominance in AI, tech, and defence. My belief is that we are into an era of huge government spending to secure victory that is analogous to the coordinated effort between state and private sector we saw in WW2 and during the Space Race. For a diversified approach to robotics the iShares Automation and Robotics ETF could be worth a look.

But we also see energy plays offering long-term value, particularly grid technology stocks, with global data centre power demand expected to double by 2030, according to S&P. Investment in electricity generation and the grid will support a wide range of stocks. Grid as a theme is a long-term play – beyond AI it’s about green transformation and a lack of investment over recent years. 

In terms of energy generation, a couple of strong performers from 2025 remain in play – Constellation Energy and NextEra Energy. For a UK bias, look towards National Grid.

For broad diversified grid tech exposure I would look towards the FT NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure  ETF. National Grid is the second top holding in the fund after Schneider Electric. 

Another name within this fund that offers growth at a reasonable price is Eaton, a grid tech power management company – 2026 should be a good year for its electrical backlog conversion and it’s arguably the most important grid tech name in the AI space.

Commodities have been a big 2025 play and I think remain an interesting for 2026 and beyond as they are tied to global thematic trends such as ongoing U.S.-China competition, supply chain diversification, energy transition and AI. I also like commodities from the point of view of ‘hard assets’ being in demand as the Fed ‘runs it hot’ in 2026 with the next Chair in sync with the administration. 

Copper is arguably the most attractive play here due to constrained supply and long-term structural demand growth from grid and power infrastructure. Supply disruptions are stacking up and the market is heading for a significant deficit of 30% by 2035, according to the IEA. 

Gold is also still looking structurally positive with trends from 2025 that powered the metal to record highs unlikely to go away. Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar as other global central banks move to tighten policy next year could act as a further tailwind. I looked at whether it's too late to invest in gold recently.

Glencore is likely the best placed to benefit from expected supply pressures in both copper and aluminium, while Barrick seems in a good position to benefit from supportive forces for gold.

Some modest diversification into commodities has been one of the themes we have been hearing all year and I suspect it will continue. Instead of single stock exposure investors may consider a diversified exposure via an ETF such as the iShares Diversified Commodity Swap ETF.

Moving on, I still like European defence as a theme. The rearmament story is yet to really even begin and whilst we have seen a material rerating in several large defence names on the continent and in the UK, a selloff in the autumn on some fuzzy ‘Ukraine peace deal hope’ trade is overdone and fails to capture the long-term value in the sector. 

We are seeing a paradigmatic realignment in EU/Nato/UK defence policy. The 20-40% decline in defence stocks since September appears overcooked. Any peace deal is likely to just begin the next phase in confrontation where we see Russia regenerate its armed forces and Europe materially increases defence spending to deter the threat. Germany’s authorisation for €52bn in defence orders on 9 December is just the start.

Hensoldt looks interesting. It’s disappointed on 2026 guidance but the longer term outlook is still positive. It’s 60% exposed to German spending, which given the country’s fiscal position looks in good shape to increase. Shares fell ~40% since September, which looks overdone. Rheinmetall as the other major German-exposed name is also still worth a look. BAE Systems provides UK exposure to this theme with a strong 11% profit growth this year and record £27bn order book. It’s had a good run this year (+50%) but has sold off about 15% from its highs at the end of Sep.

As I looked at in this year’s Outrageous Predictions, other plays that could be interesting include a bet on quantum computing. Explosive price action in some of the pure-play names has spoken to significant retail investor interest in this sector already. Moving on from pure-play quantum (RGTI, QUBT, QBTS, IONQ) there could be more value where quantum meets cryptography and cybersecurity – SEALSQ Corp is one name that is a bet on quantum-resistant security.