Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
London Quick Take – 14 Oct - Equity rally stalls as new front opens in US-China trade war
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
If both sides keep a hard stance like this then we can see increased volatility for the rest of the month. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, upped the rhetorical tit-for-tat by saying China was trying to damage the global economy with its curbs on rare earth exports, adding that the US had “substantial levers on our side we can pull”. China FWIW said that the door is open for talks but “will fight to the end”. Not the kind of noises that’s going to underpin a strong risk-on session you would feel.
After regaining some ground in Monday’s recovery session, European stock markets opened lower on Tuesday, dragged down by the general trade war noise and a weak session in Tokyo that saw the Nikkei post its worst one-day drop since April. The FTSE 100 was about half a percent lower on the day, before trimming losses a bit, while the DAX and CAC both declined around one percent.
Crypto assets are being taking for a bit of a ride on this volatile setup. Interesting to see the bitcoin treasury companies being hit quite hard – for instance Metaplanet’s enterprise value has fallen below the value of its bitcoin holding. Bitcoin itself is below $112k, down around 10% from its recent peak. I don't see the Bitcoin as debasement trade argument really...moves too much with risk assets.
Some of the highest beta stocks provided some of the biggest gains yesterday – Rigetti +28%, D-Wave +24%, Oklo +18%...lots of meme names doing really well on the snapback. But in a higher volatile and more uncertain market, will investors start to favour income-generating stocks instead?
Gold, needless to say, has spat higher once more with spot prices jumping to $4,179 overnight, a fresh all-time high, though we a very sharp reversal around 06:30 this morning to push price back to around $4,110. Prices now around 20% above the 200-day moving average indicate we could be seeing the long-awaited consolidation. Silver made a new all-time high above $52 before also pulling back amid a short squeeze in the London spot market due to a lack of supply.
Sterling fell to its weakest since early August after weak wage data from the UK suggested a deepening problem for the UK labour market. GBPUSD, which has dipped to 1.3250 this morning, is getting hit by the twin forces of the torrid UK economic picture and a resurgent US dollar. Unemployment of 4.8%, the highest since May 2021, is hardly the ideal backdrop for the Budget next month...but combined with cooler wage growth it could nudge the Bank of England to go deeper with cuts. Silver linings I suppose.
Read the full week ahead here.
Key Points
- Stocks stutter as trade war opens new front
- Gold and silver spike to fresh highs
- Broadcom jumps 10% as it joins OpenAI party
- US earnings season gets into full swing this week
It’s all got a very spring-summer 2025 feel to it. Wall Street rebounded on Monday, with the S&P 500 clawing back about half of Friday’s rout as it registered its best day since May. Chip stocks led the tech-fuelled gains with Broadcom up 10% as it joined the OpenAI bandwagon, falling in behind Nvidia and AMD.
But we haven’t closed the gap and there’s fresh trade war friction this morning weighing on US futures after China sanctioned five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean. Shares of the company plunged 8% in Seoul but the main concern here is that this is a signal of re-escalation that’s likely to keep a bid under volatility. This comes as from today both the US and China roll out additional port fees. A new maritime front in this trade war should keep things interesting.
But we haven’t closed the gap and there’s fresh trade war friction this morning weighing on US futures after China sanctioned five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean. Shares of the company plunged 8% in Seoul but the main concern here is that this is a signal of re-escalation that’s likely to keep a bid under volatility. This comes as from today both the US and China roll out additional port fees. A new maritime front in this trade war should keep things interesting.
If both sides keep a hard stance like this then we can see increased volatility for the rest of the month. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, upped the rhetorical tit-for-tat by saying China was trying to damage the global economy with its curbs on rare earth exports, adding that the US had “substantial levers on our side we can pull”. China FWIW said that the door is open for talks but “will fight to the end”. Not the kind of noises that’s going to underpin a strong risk-on session you would feel.
After regaining some ground in Monday’s recovery session, European stock markets opened lower on Tuesday, dragged down by the general trade war noise and a weak session in Tokyo that saw the Nikkei post its worst one-day drop since April. The FTSE 100 was about half a percent lower on the day, before trimming losses a bit, while the DAX and CAC both declined around one percent.
Crypto assets are being taking for a bit of a ride on this volatile setup. Interesting to see the bitcoin treasury companies being hit quite hard – for instance Metaplanet’s enterprise value has fallen below the value of its bitcoin holding. Bitcoin itself is below $112k, down around 10% from its recent peak. I don't see the Bitcoin as debasement trade argument really...moves too much with risk assets.
Some of the highest beta stocks provided some of the biggest gains yesterday – Rigetti +28%, D-Wave +24%, Oklo +18%...lots of meme names doing really well on the snapback. But in a higher volatile and more uncertain market, will investors start to favour income-generating stocks instead?
Gold, needless to say, has spat higher once more with spot prices jumping to $4,179 overnight, a fresh all-time high, though we a very sharp reversal around 06:30 this morning to push price back to around $4,110. Prices now around 20% above the 200-day moving average indicate we could be seeing the long-awaited consolidation. Silver made a new all-time high above $52 before also pulling back amid a short squeeze in the London spot market due to a lack of supply.
Sterling fell to its weakest since early August after weak wage data from the UK suggested a deepening problem for the UK labour market. GBPUSD, which has dipped to 1.3250 this morning, is getting hit by the twin forces of the torrid UK economic picture and a resurgent US dollar. Unemployment of 4.8%, the highest since May 2021, is hardly the ideal backdrop for the Budget next month...but combined with cooler wage growth it could nudge the Bank of England to go deeper with cuts. Silver linings I suppose.
Read the full week ahead here.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...