The Week Ahead: US Q3 earnings season kicks off with Wall Street banks

US earnings season gets into full swing this week as the big banks on Wall Street report their third quarter results. A flurry of IPOs and strong M&A activity should support investment bank earnings while NII expectations are set to remain robust as the US economy has stayed solid, but there could be some doubts about loan growth and deposit levels.

The ongoing US government shutdown will delay some important inflation and retail sales numbers this week, but the key CPI inflation report due on Tuesday, 15 October, may get released as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling back some furloughed workers so it can get the benchmark inflation report out. Although it may not be released as scheduled it is thought it will be out before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on 28-29 October.

On the political front we’ll see how long the latest French government lasts and whether it looks like it can cobble together a budget for 2025. Japan’s political scene will also be in focus after the Komeito party quit the ruling coalition just days after Takaichi Sanae was elected LDP leader and prime minister.

IMF and World Bank meetings take place in New York, so expect plenty of jawboning about the state of the global economy, trade policies, currency movements and fiscal profligacy.

Also watch for news on miners and metals as it’s LME Week, the annual gathering of the global metals industry in London.

Monday, 13 October

Columbus Day in the US sees bond markets closed but stock markets remain open. Thanksgiving holiday in Canada means all markets there are closed. Central bankers and finance ministers convene in Washington for the Annual Meetings of International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Tuesday, 14 October

Big banks get Q3 earnings season going properly - JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo and BlackRock are due to report. Johnson & Johnson is also slated to report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, while we also hear from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey on the day that UK unemployment and average earnings data are released.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei is due to visit the White House for talks on strengthening the strategic partnership with the US, just a few days after the US Treasury intervened in the country’s currency market for the first time. It comes ahead of key mid-term elections due on 26 October amid waning confidence in Argentina’s president has seen a run on the peso.

Wednesday, 15 October

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and ASML earnings are due up. US CPI inflation data is due, but it’s unlikely to be released on time despite efforts to bring back furloughed BLS workers to get the release before the Fed decision on 29 October. Chinese inflation data is one to watch earlier while we should get the Fed’s Beige Book, a survey assessment of the country’s economic disposition.

Several central bankers are speaking, including the Bank of England’s Breeden, Fed governor Waller (dovish) and Trump’s governor pick Miran (very dovish).

Thursday, 16 October

UK GDP figures are the main event early doors, which are accompanied by construction output, industrial production and trade data. US PPI inflation and retail sales are slated but again are dependent on the shutdown lifting in time. A slew of central bankers are due to speak with Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, the highlight. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is due to report its Q3 results.

Friday, 17 October

Lots more central bankers speak in New York as the IMF and World Bank meetings wind up, but my feeling is that we should be paying close attention to a speech in London from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who’s been vocal on the path of rates and the inflation-employment trade-off the central bank is treading. Eurozone CPI data will be important for the ECB and sentiment on the euro. American Express and oilfield services company SLB report earnings.