Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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London Quick Take – 18 Dec - BoE to cut and could signal dovishness ahead, BP gets a new chief
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
Stocks in Europe were mildly higher on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 inching up 0.25% to test the 9,800 level. BP shares swung as the company changed its CEO. The new boss Meg O’Neill from Woodside Energy has a big task to turn things around, but it sounds relatively simple – focus on the core oil & gas business, reduce debt and sell non-core assets. Shares opened nicely higher before swinging lower, last up about 0.4% on the session...no great expectation here, the change of CEO seems more an evolution than revolution of the turnaround since Elliott got involved.
Stocks fell for a fourth day on Wall St. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 6,721.4 on Wednesday, the Nasdaq slid 1.9%, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.5% to 47,886 as the tech selloff deepened. Artificial intelligence leaders drove the retreat after fresh worries about how much spending is needed to earn a return: Oracle sank 5.4% on talk of a stalled data centre project, while Nvidia fell 3.8% and Broadcom and AMD were down 4-5%. The bright spot was Micron, which rose about 10% after it beat estimates and guided well above forecasts, as AI data-centre demand keeps memory pricing and volumes firm.
We are seeing a rotation out of richly valued sectors like AI names and into more fairly valued quality sectors. The Shiller PE ratio crossed 40 this week. This has only happened twice before - December 1999 and November 2021. Both times preceded some pretty brutal price action.
Elsewhere, activist Elliott Investment Management has taken a stake of over $1bn in Lululemon and is presenting a potential CEO candidate to aid a turnaround. Shares rose 5% in premarket trading.I had a look at some key investing themes for 2026 here
and
The Bank of England will cut rates, but the MPC remains divided despite the undershoot on inflation and worsening labour market. The UK has been an outlier on inflation, but this is changing and should enable the BoE to cut rates further next year. Yesterday’s 3.2% reading was the go signal for a cut, and I think we get at least two more in Feb and Apr.
Cable sits slap on its 200-day moving average at 1.3349 ahead of the decision and looks vulnerable to a shift in the MPC vote. With the hawks and doves so far split down the line, it only takes one hawk to go dovish following the inflation report to alter the market expectation for next year. Later we have the ECB decision expected to sit tight and some US inflation data and the latest weekly unemployment claims update.
Cable sits slap on its 200-day moving average at 1.3349 ahead of the decision and looks vulnerable to a shift in the MPC vote. With the hawks and doves so far split down the line, it only takes one hawk to go dovish following the inflation report to alter the market expectation for next year. Later we have the ECB decision expected to sit tight and some US inflation data and the latest weekly unemployment claims update.
Stocks in Europe were mildly higher on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 inching up 0.25% to test the 9,800 level. BP shares swung as the company changed its CEO. The new boss Meg O’Neill from Woodside Energy has a big task to turn things around, but it sounds relatively simple – focus on the core oil & gas business, reduce debt and sell non-core assets. Shares opened nicely higher before swinging lower, last up about 0.4% on the session...no great expectation here, the change of CEO seems more an evolution than revolution of the turnaround since Elliott got involved.
Stocks fell for a fourth day on Wall St. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 6,721.4 on Wednesday, the Nasdaq slid 1.9%, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.5% to 47,886 as the tech selloff deepened. Artificial intelligence leaders drove the retreat after fresh worries about how much spending is needed to earn a return: Oracle sank 5.4% on talk of a stalled data centre project, while Nvidia fell 3.8% and Broadcom and AMD were down 4-5%. The bright spot was Micron, which rose about 10% after it beat estimates and guided well above forecasts, as AI data-centre demand keeps memory pricing and volumes firm.
We are seeing a rotation out of richly valued sectors like AI names and into more fairly valued quality sectors. The Shiller PE ratio crossed 40 this week. This has only happened twice before - December 1999 and November 2021. Both times preceded some pretty brutal price action.
Elsewhere, activist Elliott Investment Management has taken a stake of over $1bn in Lululemon and is presenting a potential CEO candidate to aid a turnaround. Shares rose 5% in premarket trading.
and
Read my look at some ideas for 2026 here.
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