Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Investor Content Strategist
Tim Cook is stepping down from the CEO role at Apple after 15 years, during which time the stock has increased x20 and revenues quadrupled. Hardware engineering boss John Ternus is set to take over from 1 September, when Cook will assume the role of executive chairman. For Ternus, it's quite a pair of shoes to fill.
While there had been rumours knocking around for a while about a change in leadership, the timing is arguably a bit of a surprise. I think it indicates Apple feels it’s in a position to deliver a successful AI strategy and it’s therefore the right moment to hand over leadership. It’s probably going to raise expectations ahead of the WWDC26 developer conference event in terms of the product roadmap. WWDC26 takes place 8 –12 June.
Investors will be hopeful that they now get the best of both worlds – Tim Cook stays on as executive chairman to grease the wheels of government and supplier negotiations, while Ternus brings key technical expertise to the leadership function.
Key questions face Ternus – the complex supply chain as issues such as China and tariffs become more difficult to navigate, the broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elsewhere, the memory shortage tied to AI demand and of course – where is Apple in the great AI Race?
Apple has faced criticism from investors for apparently lagging some US tech companies in developing AI, particularly after it delayed a Siri upgrade last year. In December it replaced its AI chief with a Google alumni and Apple plans to launch an updated version of Siri based on a Google Gemini AI model later this year. Cook was/is very much an operations guy while Ternus is a tech guy. A tech/hardware/engineering background is going to be needed to drive Apple’s AI catchup. I’d expect that Apple leans into its wearables tech and Ternus is probably in a better position than most to execute on that.
AI concerns sit alongside operational considerations around the supply chain complexity, tariffs and the politics of dealing with China and the Trump administration. With Cook staying on as executive chairman it’s hoped the company can continue to utilise is political nous to remain on the right side of the White House –lately the outgoing CEO has focused lobbying efforts on the president, who’s imposed then repealed tariffs on a number of countries where Apple makes its products. Last August, Cook went to Washington to appear with Trump to announce a $600bn investment in the US over the next five years.
Supply chain issues are going to stand out – Cook built a hyper-optimised global supply chain with heavy exposure to China, which remains the case despite diversifying into places like India and Vietnam.
After 15 years in charge the departure of Cook from the CEO role is a major moment for the company; but investors will be relieved he’s staying on a high-level capacity to continue to steer the ship.
Apple is due to release its fiscal second quarter results on 30 April.
Shares have picked up lately. After peaking in early December AAPL was in steady decline but seems to have put in a near-term bottom around the 200-day SMA and is now trading +10% higher than the March low.
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