AI_header

Apple and Amazon earnings: strong demand, scarce chips, different rewards

Equities 5 minutes to read

Key takeaways

  • Strong demand helped both companies, but supply and execution shaped the market reaction.

  • Amazon showed clearer returns from artificial intelligence spending, while Apple faced shortages and slower services growth.

  • The market rewards visible returns on investment and punishes bottlenecks that delay sales or weaken margins.


On 30 July 2026, Apple and Amazon reported strong quarters and received very different verdicts. Amazon’s shares rose in late trading, while Apple’s fell.

Both companies reported healthy demand. Amazon showed that its huge artificial intelligence spending is feeding faster cloud growth. Apple showed strong iPhone and Mac sales, but warned that component shortages would restrict future growth.

One shortage, two business models

Apple sells devices and then earns further revenue from services such as the App Store, iCloud and Apple Music. Amazon runs a large retail platform, but most of its operating profit comes from Amazon Web Services, or AWS, which rents computing power to businesses.

Both companies depend on scarce chips, memory and data-centre equipment. Yet the same shortage affects them differently.

Amazon buys this equipment to create capacity that customers can rent repeatedly. Apple needs many of the same components to manufacture products that consumers buy once, even if those devices later support valuable services.

Amazon can show rising demand for the capacity it is building. Apple risks delaying sales when it cannot make enough devices. A shortage is easier to tolerate when customers are already queuing to rent the finished infrastructure.

Amazon shows the receipt

AWS revenue grew 37% from a year earlier, its fifth consecutive quarter of faster growth. Amazon also delivered solid growth in online retail and advertising.

The company raised expected 2026 capital spending to 220 billion USD. Capital spending is money used for long-term assets such as data centres, chips and warehouses. Most of the increase will support artificial intelligence infrastructure.

That spending pushed free cash flow below zero over the past twelve months. Free cash flow is the cash left after running the business and funding long-term investments. Normally, that would worry investors. This time, faster AWS growth suggested that the money is not merely disappearing into a very expensive building site.

The lesson also applies to Microsoft, Alphabet and the wider artificial intelligence supply chain. Large spending plans receive a warmer response when growth, demand and profits improve alongside them.

Apple’s quarter was better than its forecast

Apple’s reported quarter was strong. Total revenue grew 16%, iPhone revenue rose 22% and Mac revenue increased 29%. Demand for its main products remains healthy.

The concern was what comes next. Apple expects revenue growth of 9% to 11% in the September quarter, below the more than 12% growth expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Shortages are affecting processors and memory, while services growth is expected to slow.

This matters because Apple relies on two engines. Hardware brings users into the ecosystem. Services then create recurring revenue from that installed base. Strong device sales help, but weaker services growth reduces the quality of the mix.

Apple also shows that a lighter artificial intelligence spending strategy offers no complete shelter from the boom. It may build fewer data centres than its peers, but it still competes for many of the same chips and memory components. It avoided one large bill, only to meet the shortage at another door.

Risks to watch

For Amazon, the main risk is that spending continues to rise faster than cloud revenue. Investors should watch AWS growth, capacity use and whether free cash flow begins to recover.

For Apple, warning signs include longer delivery times, further product price increases and weaker services growth. Persistent shortages could delay sales, while higher prices may test consumer demand.

Across the sector, memory prices remain important. If costs stay high, hardware makers face margin pressure, while cloud companies may need more spending to deliver the same capacity.

Investor playbook

  • Separate demand from delivery. Strong orders matter less when supply cannot reach customers.
  • Track spending against revenue growth, not spending alone.
  • Watch recurring revenue quality, especially services, cloud and advertising.
  • Diversify across beneficiaries and customers of the same infrastructure cycle.

The physical bill behind digital growth

Apple and Amazon sell very different things, but their results point to the same reality. Artificial intelligence is not floating quietly in the cloud. It requires chips, memory, electricity, buildings and careful execution.

Amazon received credit because its spending produced faster cloud growth. Apple received less patience because shortages weakened the outlook and services lost momentum. Neither reaction guarantees what happens next.

For investors, the useful question is not which company spends more. It is whether management can turn scarce physical resources into durable customer value and rising cash generation. The digital economy still runs on software, but somebody must first find the parts, build the machines and pay the electricity bill.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. 

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return

    Outrageous Predictions

    Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...

This content is marketing material. 

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Market Ltd. (SCML) provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice or a recommendation.

SCML content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

SCML partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conducted on its platform. Some partners also pay retrocessions contingent on clients investing in products from those partners. 

While SCML receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. SCML does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992