Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Chief Investment Strategist
If you’ve been watching markets lately and thinking, “Why is everything moving at once?” — you’re not alone.
The recent drop in silver and precious metals matters beyond metals itself because sharp moves in a “big, liquid” market can spill over into other assets. Here’s the investor-friendly version of what’s going on:
So even if you don’t own silver, a sharp move in metals can still show up as wider swings across portfolios.
For long-term investors, the key is not to get pulled into the “everything is breaking” narrative. Selloffs are stressful, but they’re also revealing: they show where process is strong — and where behaviour can cause avoidable damage.
Here are three common mistakes selloffs expose — and the simple mindset shifts that help avoid them.
Sharp price moves look like information — but speed doesn’t equal significance.
Metal selloffs can be driven by short-term forces:
These drivers can dominate for days or weeks without changing the longer-term role metals may play as a diversifier.
A useful discipline:
Before acting, write one sentence:
“What changed, and will it still matter in 6–12 months?”
If you can’t answer clearly, the move is probably market mechanics, not a structural verdict.
Gold and silver are often treated as “stability assets,” but in stressed markets they can drop sharply — especially when:
That doesn’t mean diversification failed. It means stress changes behaviour: investors sell what’s liquid.
The real test:
If a 10–20% swing forces an emotional decision, the issue is usually position size, not asset choice.
This is the most damaging mistake — and the most common.
Many long-term investors sell during selloffs not because their thesis changed, but because discomfort did. The idea is often “I’ll re-enter later,” but re-entry rarely happens cleanly — and markets don’t ring a bell when the dust has settled.
Volatility turns temporary moves into permanent portfolio decisions.
A better response:
If an asset still belongs in a long-term plan, the question is often how much, not whether.
The most resilient portfolios are rarely exciting. They’re built around:
Selloffs are less a test of market knowledge and more a test of discipline. Consistency usually matters more than conviction.
If you bought metals as part of a multi-year strategy:
The investors who compound successfully over time are not the ones who avoid every drawdown — they are the ones who avoid turning drawdowns into decisions they can’t undo.