Technical Update - Energy: Oil, Gas, Uranium and Carbon Emission
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Brent Oil rebounded off of rising trend line, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the strong support (decided by where there break out occurred prior to the price went almost vertical) at around $96.75
It now seems to be rejected at the 0.618 retracement of the sell-off following the blow out peak. We are likely to see a few days with minor set-back before a likely move higher. A break above $123.73 will most likely lead to a test of the 7th March peak at $139.13. No divergence on RSI indicates new highs possibly testing all-time highs at $147.50 - see Monthly chart. But an extension of the uptrend to 1.382 projection of this month's correction at $155.25
This bullish scenario will be demolished if Brent Oil drops below the strong support line at around $96.75.
After the “Boom and Bust” scenario unfolding earlier this month Dutch TTF Gas is being rejected at the 21 Daily SMA. For further upside a break above €132.75 is needed. Below €94.82 prices around 65 is not unlikely. Spring has arrived in Europe?
Contrary to Dutch Gas the US gas prices are on the rise. Henry Hub Gas has broken longer term falling trend line closing in on the strong resistance at around $5.52
Uranium is in an uptrend initiated after bullish break out earlier this month. Currently the Uranium ETF URA:arcx is trading around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around 26.68. There is minor RSI divergence however, so a correction down to around 25 is not unlikely.
However, as long as URA stays above 22.50 uptrend is intact.
Carbon Emission seems to have been rejected at around the 0.618 retracement . A Bear Engulfing candle Wednesday signals a top and reversal. RSI not being able to break above 60 threshold indicates bear trend is likely to resume. A break below €75 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 68.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
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